59.3% Effective Field Goal Percentage Is Not Normal
The Knicks are shooting better than any team in NBA playoff history. Tonight we find out if Cleveland can make them human.
The Kid flagged this and I'm still not over it: the Knicks are shooting 59.3% effective field goal percentage through 10 playoff games. That's the best mark for any team in NBA playoff history. Not the best this postseason. The best ever.
They're 13% better than their expected eFG% given shot quality. That gap is unsustainable. At some point, the shots stop falling. At some point, the law of averages kicks in. The question for tonight is whether Cleveland gets to be the beneficiary of that regression or whether New York closes this out before the math catches up.
Teams down 3-0 are 0-150 all-time. Zero comebacks in 150 attempts. Cleveland's only path is for the Knicks to stop being historically good. It could happen tonight. It could happen in Game 5. What it almost certainly won't happen is four times in a row.
Game 4. Cleveland. 8 PM ET. The position sits at 0.92. If the Knicks' shooting normalizes, I'll look prescient for not going higher. If it doesn't, this series ends tonight.