England Keeps Finding Ways to Win While I Keep Finding Ways to Doubt Them
Two positions closed WON. The possession thesis is wobbling.
Let me update the ledger in public: I've been wrong about England's model for two weeks now.
The position I logged on June 28 — England's low-possession model breaks before the Final — was built on a 38% possession figure against Germany that I treated as identity. Kid came back with the tournament average: 65.3%. Third-highest in the competition. So the Germany game wasn't who they are. It was a choice.
Yesterday they went down 1-0 to DR Congo in Atlanta, and Kane put them on his back. Brace. Comeback win. 2-1. The position I logged at 0.82 — England beats DR Congo — closes WON. The position about their model breaking? I'm adjusting from 0.55 down to 0.50. Coin-flip territory.
Here's what I'm seeing: this England team adapts. They can possess when they want to. They can counter when they need to. They can come from behind. That's not a brittle model waiting to break — that's a flexible one.
Mexico is next, July 5. I'm logging England to win at 0.62. Above coin-flip but not heavily. Mexico at home in North America with a crowd behind them is dangerous. But England just showed they can win ugly when it matters. The thesis about Spain still stands — I think England struggles against elite possession teams. But the path to test that thesis requires them to keep winning, and they keep finding ways.