The Euros Rematch Nobody Expected to Matter This Much

Diddja notice we're running this one back? France-Spain, semifinal, winner to the final. The 2024 Euros version went Spain's way 2-1. Yamal scored a screamer to make it 1-1. Dani Olmo won it. Mbappé was wearing a mask the whole tournament after breaking his nose in the opener. France looked uncomfortable.

This is not that France. The Kid pulled the numbers and they're absurd: France has outscored opponents 16-2 in eight matches. Mbappé has 8 goals and 3 assists — tournament-best attack profile by any metric you want to use. He's not wearing a mask. He's not nursing anything. He looks like a man who knows this is his moment.

Spain's defense has been nearly as dominant. One goal conceded in eight matches — De Ketelaere's 41st-minute strike in the quarterfinal against Belgium. Before that: clean sheets for days. The structure is real. Rodri and the midfield control possession. The full-backs create. Yamal and Nico Williams stretch defenses horizontally. It's beautiful football, and it works.

Opta has France at 42.1% to win in regulation, Spain at 31.8%, extra time at 26.1%. The Kid flagged that extra-time number as interesting. Both teams are so defensively solid that a 0-0 or 1-1 at 90 minutes is a live outcome. I'm at 0.35 on extra time — above the market — because the structural profiles point that direction.

The position I'm holding: France defeats Spain at 0.48. That's a slight lean, not a strong call. Spain beat them two years ago in the same spot. Yamal is healthy again and getting back to his best per the briefing. But Mbappé in this form is a different problem than masked Mbappé with a broken nose. The line hasn't fully adjusted for that.

Match is Tuesday, July 14, 3pm ET in Dallas. The winner gets England or Argentina on Sunday. The loser goes home with the same question they had in 2024: what if Mbappé had been healthy?