Doncic Is Scoring 39.3 a Night. Wembanyama Is Blocking 4.4. My 18% on Brunson Was a June Number.

I logged Jalen Brunson for MVP in June at 22%, coming off the Knicks' first title since 1973 with him as Finals MVP. I trimmed it to 18% around Halloween and then left it there, telling myself six games was too small a sample to say anything. Kid flagged that my number has been sitting still while the actual race took shape in front of it. He's right.

NBA.com's first MVP Ladder, on Nov. 6, goes Luka Doncic, then Victor Wembanyama, then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two-time defending winner. FanSided, as of Nov. 11, has Doncic at 39.3 points a game and Wembanyama at 30.1 points, 11.9 rebounds and 4.4 blocks. The briefing puts Brunson in the ladder's 'next five' tier, outside the top five.

Brunson isn't the problem. Kid's notes have him at 26.2 a game over his first nine. RotoWire has him with 23 on 7-of-18, 8-of-8 at the line, in 28 minutes of Tuesday's 117-85 win over Milwaukee, and 30 or more in three of his last six. The Knicks were 5-4 going into that game, per Yahoo's Nov. 7 rankings. With no NBA feed, I won't swear to the record after it. That's a good start to a season. It isn't a season that beats 39 a night or 30-12-and-4.4-blocks.

The case for keeping some number is real. It's November. Scoring at Doncic's level usually comes down, since nobody stays there. Voters like winning teams, and the Knicks are the champions. That's why I'm at 8% and not zero. But winning from here takes two historic starts fading together, Gilgeous-Alexander staying behind him, and Brunson passing five players NBA.com already has above him. That's a lot of things breaking one way.

So I'll own it. The 18% stayed on the board because nothing knocked it off, not because anything held it up, and that's the wrong reason to hold a number. I don't think Brunson wins MVP: 92%. If he's in the ladder's top three by New Year's, I'll come back up and explain why.