Barry's Record

The void stands; its reason now says what the record shows. Ungradeable as worded: the headline (Vegas have not trailed in a series after Game 1) and the stake's own rule ("resolves YES if Vegas loses Game 1, NO if they win") name opposite outcomes at the same 42%. Vegas won Game 1 5-4, a hit on one reading and a miss on the other. There is no pair to grade it against: the turned-round headline ("Vegas Golden Knights trail in a series after Game 1") first appeared on June 3 already marked resolved, after Game 1 had been played, so it failed pre-registration and is not a call on the record either (CORR-20261024-023, CORR-20261024-029). The other counts, for the record: graded on its headline it would be a miss, and the record would read 187–67; graded on its rule, a hit, 188–66.

The void stands; its reason now says what the record shows. Premise error. The stake names the opponent and the venue in its own words, and both are wrong: "Game 1 is June 4 at MSG", "The Thunder played Game 7 on May 30 — that's 5 days before Game 1", and its evidence, "Knicks have 10 days rest; Thunder have 5". Oklahoma City had lost that Game 7 to San Antonio 111-103 and were out; the opponent was San Antonio, and Game 1 was played in San Antonio on June 3. The headline names no opponent, but the case the call was staked on (rest against the Thunder, home court at MSG) is the false premise. For the record: New York won Game 1 105-95, so graded on the headline alone it would have been a hit at 60%. It is voided for the premise, whatever the lean (CORR-20261024-022, CORR-20261024-028). Counted that way, the record would read 188–66, not 187–66.

When this call was reopened (CORR-20261024-019, "open again, at the 35% it was logged at"), /record/ still showed 2%, the number written beside the old void. It shows 35% now, the number it was logged at and is graded on. What "Mercedes reliability cost it" will mean, written down before the result: At grading (end of the 2026 season): if Antonelli is champion, it did not happen. If he is not, add up the points he lost to failures of his Mercedes car: for each race he did not finish, or did not start, because the car failed (not a crash, a collision or a penalty), the points for the position he held when it failed (for a race he did not start, his grid position). If that total is at least his final points gap to the champion, it happened; if it is less, it did not happen. A retirement the race reports cannot show to be a car failure does not count; if that leaves the result unknowable, the call is voided then, with that reason.

Two calls recovered on 2026-10-24 are the same proposition, with the same outcome, as a call already on the record, staked again on a later day. POS-MLB-20260809-901 "Rays win the 2026 AL East" (logged 2026-08-09 at 72%) is also on the record as POS-MLB-20260810-003, logged on 2026-08-10 at 76%. POS-WC-20260705-901 "France defeats Morocco in World Cup Quarterfinal" (logged 2026-07-05 at 62%) is also on the record as POS-WC-20260707-003, logged on 2026-07-07 at 62%. Both of each pair are counted: they are two calls, made on different days, each published before the result. Both pairs went his way, so without the second of each the record is two wins fewer. Each row on /record/ now says so.

A walk through every version of the record found 16 calls that were published and then replaced by a different call under the same id (15 ids). Each is now graded, voided for a defect of the call with the reason, or shown to be the call graded under its id: POS-NBA-20260531-001 "Oklahoma City Thunder win 2026 NBA Championship" (2026-05-31, 44%): voided as POS-NBA-20260531-901 for a defect of the call (CORR-20261024-021). POS-NBA-20260531-002 "Knicks win NBA Finals Game 1" (2026-05-31, 60%): voided as POS-NBA-20260531-902 for a defect of the call (CORR-20261024-022). POS-NHL-20260531-001 "Vegas Golden Knights win Stanley Cup Final" (2026-05-31, 42%): graded as POS-NHL-20260531-901 (CORR-20261024-020). POS-NHL-20260601-001 "Vegas Golden Knights have not trailed in a series after Game 1 of Stanley Cup Final" (2026-06-01, 42%): voided as POS-NHL-20260601-901 for a defect of the call (CORR-20261024-023). POS-WC-20260626-001 "Spain defeats England in World Cup Quarterfinal" (2026-06-26, 58%): voided with the id: false premise: the 06-26 wording rested on round-of-16 results dated 06-26, when no round-of-16 match had been played; the final wording is voided because England were out. POS-WC-20260626-002 "France defeats Brazil in World Cup Quarterfinal" (2026-06-26, 52%): voided with the id: false premise, as for -001: no round-of-16 match had been played; the final wording is voided because Brazil were out. POS-WC-20260705-001 "France defeats Morocco in World Cup Quarterfinal" (2026-07-05, 62%): graded as POS-WC-20260705-901 (CORR-20261024-017); the same proposition was already graded as POS-WC-20260707-003. POS-CWG-20260730-001 "Glasgow 2026 Commonwealth Games does NOT publicly report ticket sales" (2026-07-30, 72%): graded as POS-CWG-20260730-901 (CORR-20261024-016). POS-MLB-20260804-001 "Dodgers lose first round of 2026 MLB playoffs" (2026-08-04, 35%): graded as POS-MLB-20260804-901 (CORR-20261024-015). POS-MLB-20260805-001 "Red Sox 24-3 stretch is regression bait, not a new baseline" (2026-08-05, 58%): graded as POS-MLB-20260805-901 (CORR-20261024-012). POS-MLB-20260809-001 "Rays win the 2026 AL East" (2026-08-09, 72%): graded as POS-MLB-20260809-901 (CORR-20261024-013); the same proposition was already graded as POS-MLB-20260810-003. POS-WNBA-20260809-001 "Valkyries finish ahead of the Aces in the Western Conference" (2026-08-09, 58%): graded as POS-WNBA-20260809-901 (CORR-20261024-014). POS-MLB-20260810-002 "Marlins play under .500 the rest of the way" (2026-08-10, 68%): graded as POS-MLB-20260810-901 (CORR-20261024-024). POS-MLB-20260827-001 "Guardians finish 2026 with a better record than the White Sox" (2026-08-27, 42%): the same call, graded under the id: republished under the id four minutes later and graded there; which of its two stakes (0.42 first, 0.35 graded) counts is R3, not ruled. POS-MLB-20260827-001 "White Sox win the 2026 AL Central" (2026-08-27, 55%): graded as POS-MLB-20260827-901 (CORR-20261024-018). POS-NFL-20260919-001 "Aaron Donald plays in the Rams' Week 2 game against the Giants on Monday, September 21" (2026-09-19, 55%): a rewording of the call graded under the id: the same game, renamed.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-08-10 at 68%, open, before its result, under the id POS-MLB-20260810-002. Then on 8 September an edition reworded the call under its id to "Marlins finish 2026 under .500" at 62%, which the record grades (CORR-20261024-009). The rewording is a different proposition, not a defect of this one. It was never graded. Being replaced for a reason unrelated to the call is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-MLB-20260810-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Miami were 60-59 when this was logged (MLB-STANDINGS-20260810-146) and finished 80-82 (MLB-STANDINGS-20260928-146): 20-23 the rest of the way, .465. It happened, on the headline and on the overall-record rule the call carried. Barry leaned YES at 0.68, called it.

Listed on the record as voided. This call was published on 2026-06-01 at 42%, under the id POS-NHL-20260601-001, and replaced under that id: two days later, already resolved, an edition turned the headline round to "Vegas Golden Knights trail in a series after Game 1" at the same 42%. The rewording is the defect in the wording itself, and the reworded call was first published already resolved. It is listed under its own id, POS-NHL-20260601-901, and not counted, for this reason: Ungradeable as worded: the headline (Vegas have not trailed in a series after Game 1) and the stake's own rule ("resolves YES if Vegas loses Game 1, NO if they win") name opposite outcomes at the same 42%. Vegas won Game 1 5-4, a hit on one reading and a miss on the other (CORR-20261024-023).

Listed on the record as voided. This call was published on 2026-05-31 at 60%, under the id POS-NBA-20260531-002, and replaced under that id: the edition was regenerated three hours later from the corrected sweep, which is the defect in this call itself. It is listed under its own id, POS-NBA-20260531-902, and not counted, for this reason: Premise error: the stake rests on the same reversed Game 7. It names Oklahoma City as the opponent, on five days' rest, with Game 1 at Madison Square Garden; the opponent was San Antonio, and Game 1 was in San Antonio. For the record: New York won Game 1 105-95, so graded it would have been a hit at 60%. It is voided for the premise, whatever the lean (CORR-20261024-022).

Listed on the record as voided. This call was published on 2026-05-31 at 44%, under the id POS-NBA-20260531-001, and replaced under that id: the edition was regenerated three hours later from the corrected sweep, which is the defect in this call itself. It is listed under its own id, POS-NBA-20260531-901, and not counted, for this reason: Premise error: staked on a sweep that had the Western Conference Finals Game 7 the wrong way round. It says Oklahoma City beat San Antonio 97-89; San Antonio won 111-103, so the Thunder were already out of the playoffs when this was published. The edition was regenerated from the corrected sweep the same morning (CORR-20261024-021).

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-05-31 at 42%, open, before its result, under the id POS-NHL-20260531-001. Then about three hours later the edition was regenerated from a corrected NBA sweep (the Western Conference Finals Game 7 had been reported the wrong way round), and the regenerated edition put a different NHL call, Stanley Cup Final Game 1 under 5.5 goals, under this id. The correction was about basketball; nothing in this call was wrong. It was never graded. Being replaced for a reason unrelated to the call is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-NHL-20260531-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Carolina beat Vegas 3-0 in Game 6 and won the Stanley Cup 4-2 (COLLECTOR-NHL-20260615-001; the record of the day closed POS-NHL-20260530-001 won and POS-NHL-20260603-001 lost on it, version bdb944b, 2026-06-15). It did not happen. Barry leaned NO at 0.58, called it.

Reopened. On 5 August this call was voided with the reason "Thesis dead": the reliability problem it was about had not come back. That is not a defect of the call. It was published before its result, it can be graded, and its premise was true, so it should not have been voided. It is open again, at the 35% it was logged at, and resolves at the end of the 2026 season: if Antonelli wins the title, it did not happen, and the lean against it is a hit.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-08-27 at 55%, open, before its result, under the id POS-MLB-20260827-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-MLB-20260827-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Cleveland won the AL Central at 85-77, one game ahead of Chicago at 84-78 (MLB-STANDINGS-20260928-114 and -145; closed on the record as POS-MLB-20260922-005). It did not happen. Barry leaned YES at 0.55, missed.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-07-05 at 62%, open, before its result, under the id POS-WC-20260705-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-WC-20260705-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). France beat Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinal on 9 July (closed on the record as POS-WC-20260707-003). It happened. Barry leaned YES at 0.62, called it.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-07-30 at 72%, open, before its result, under the id POS-CWG-20260730-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-CWG-20260730-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). No official ticket sales figure was published before the closing ceremony on 2 August: the CGF's closing statement carried no sales data (COLLECTOR-CWG-20260807-002), and the record closed two calls on the same evidence (POS-CWG-20260721-001, POS-CWG-20260804-001). It happened. The same hedge applies as on those two: coverage of this beat was thin, so the silence is softer than a fully swept one. Barry leaned YES at 0.72, called it.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-08-04 at 35%, open, before its result, under the id POS-MLB-20260804-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-MLB-20260804-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Los Angeles won the NL West and beat Atlanta 3-1 in the Division Series (MLB-RESULT-849822; closed on the record as POS-MLB-20261002-001), so whichever series was their first, they did not lose it. It did not happen. Barry leaned NO at 0.65, called it.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-08-09 at 58%, open, before its result, under the id POS-WNBA-20260809-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-WNBA-20260809-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Golden State finished 32-12, second in the West, one game ahead of Las Vegas at 31-13, third (WNBA-STANDINGS-20260925-valkyries and -aces; closed on the record as POS-WNBA-20260812-001 and POS-WNBA-20260920-002). It happened. Barry leaned YES at 0.58, called it.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-08-09 at 72%, open, before its result, under the id POS-MLB-20260809-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-MLB-20260809-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Tampa Bay won the AL East (closed on the record as POS-MLB-20260810-003: 96-61 against a Yankees ceiling of 95, MLB-STANDINGS-20260923-139). It happened. Barry leaned YES at 0.72, called it.

Added to the record. This call was published on 2026-08-05 at 58%, open, before its result, under the id POS-MLB-20260805-001. Minutes later a second run of the same edition put a different call under that id, and this one was never graded. Being replaced by a re-run is not a defect of the call, so it is graded on its own first stake and listed under its own id, POS-MLB-20260805-901 (a 9xx number marks a call recovered from a replaced id). Boston were 61-51 when this was logged and finished 87-75 (MLB-STANDINGS-20261001-111): 26-24 the rest of the way, .520. The call named regression toward about .550 from a .889 stretch; .520 is at or below that on any reading. It happened. Barry leaned YES at 0.58, called it.

Each of these 7 calls replaced a different call under the same id, minutes after that call was published, and kept the logged time of the call it replaced. Each now shows the time the version of the site that first carried it was published, 2 to 17 minutes later than the time shown before. No result changes.

The close of this call counted its window from 26 September, the date a later edition had moved its start to. The call was logged on 25 August with Houston 65-66. They finished 81-81, so over the window as called they went 16-15, which is not under .500. The miss stands, and the close now counts from 25 August.

The call graded is "Marlins finish 2026 under .500", which was first published on 8 September 2026 at 62%. The record showed it logged on 10 August at 68%: that date and stake belonged to the earlier wording under the same id, "Marlins play under .500 the rest of the way", which is a different proposition. The call now shows the date and stake of the wording that was graded. It happened, so it stays a hit.

The record graded this call at 62%. 62% was the stake on a different call, "France defeats Morocco in World Cup Quarterfinal", which a second run of the same edition replaced with this one under the same id four minutes after it was published. It was first published at 72%. It did not happen, so it stays a miss, now graded at 72%, and it counts in the 70%-and-over line.

Reverses CORR-20260924-003. On 24 September we changed the stake graded on this call from 85% to 58%, saying 58% was the number first published. It was not this call's number. 58% was the stake on a different call, "Valkyries finish ahead of the Aces in the Western Conference", which a second run of the same edition replaced with this one under the same id six minutes after it was published. It was first published at 85%. It happened, so it stays a hit, and it now counts in the 70%-and-over line.

Reverses CORR-20260924-002. On 24 September we changed the stake graded on this call from 78% to 72%, saying 72% was the number first published. It was not this call's number. 72% was the stake on a different call, "Rays win the 2026 AL East", which a second run of the same edition replaced with this one under the same id six minutes after it was published. It was first published at 78%. It happened, so it stays a hit, now graded at 78%.

Reverses CORR-20260924-001. On 24 September we changed the stake graded on this call from 45% to 58%, saying 58% was the number first published. It was not this call's number. 58% was the stake on a different call, "Red Sox 24-3 stretch is regression bait, not a new baseline", which a second run of the same edition replaced with this one under the same id eleven seconds after it was published. It was first published at 45%, a lean against it, and it happened, so it is graded as a miss, not a hit.

This call was written by an edition that failed to publish, and first reached the site on 2026-07-15, already resolved, after the match. It cannot be shown to have been logged before the result, so it is listed and no longer graded.

This call was written by an edition that failed to publish, and first reached the site on 2026-07-15, already resolved, after the match. It cannot be shown to have been logged before the result, so it is listed and no longer graded.

This call was written by an edition that failed to publish, and first reached the site on 2026-07-15, already resolved, after the match. It cannot be shown to have been logged before the result, so it is listed and no longer graded.

Correction, 24 October 2026: logged times on 103 calls. Between 13 and 29 September 2026 (and once, in a re-run, on 5 July), a bug in how each edition was compiled rewrote the logged time on 103 of Barry's calls that were already published. On 84 of them the rewritten time was days or weeks later than the real one, so the call showed a logged date after the date in its own id. We have put back on each call the time it was first published with. 86 of the restored times are earlier than the ones shown before; the other 17 moved later, by 5 minutes to 5 hours on the same day. The evidence is our own publishing history: the first version of the site that carried each call, still open, before its result. That history is kept in a private repository, and its times are recorded by our own systems, not by an outside party. The full list (each call, the old and new time, and the version that first carried it) is below and at diddja.com/record/corrections.json. Three calls whose first published version was already resolved are voided (CORR-20261024-002 to 004). Four of the 103 times are corrected again by CORR-20261024-009 and 011. This checks that each call was published before its result. It does not check that it was published before the game started.

Barry first published this call at 58%, but a second run of the same edition six minutes later re-stamped his logged number as 85%, so the record now grades the 58% he published first, and the call no longer counts toward his 70%+ line.

Barry first published this call at 72%, but a second run of the same edition six minutes later re-stamped his logged number as 78%, so the record now grades the 72% he published first.

Barry first published this call at 58%, but a second run of the same edition eleven seconds later re-stamped his logged number as 45%, which moved it to the other side of the call, so the record now grades the 58% he published first.