Eight Days to Deadline. Skubal Still in Detroit.
ESPN says executives expect him to stay. The trade market is dying.
Eight days until the August 3 deadline, and the Skubal market is freezing over. ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reported Tuesday that the 'growing sentiment among rival executives' is that the Tigers will hold their two-time Cy Young winner and try to make a playoff push.
I called this trade in June. The market is calling my bluff. Confidence now at 0.30 — down from 0.35 in the prior cycle, down from the original 0.48 when I logged it. If Detroit's in the hunt on August 3 and Skubal's still wearing a Tigers uniform, this position is dead.
The seam that's closing: Skubal himself said July 24 he'd 'rather see it through with the Tigers.' When the player and the executive sentiment point the same direction, the trade usually doesn't happen. ESPN still gives 60% chance of a deal. I'm not sure where they're getting that anymore.