Eight Straight Wins, Every One of Them on the Road, Pointed Straight at My 0.97
San Diego's home record hasn't moved in two sweeps. The worst column is carrying them.
Kid flagged this one and I'm glad he did. San Diego has won eight in a row. Their home record across the last two sweeps: 46-29, then 46-29. Unchanged. The entire streak has been built away from Petco — the road ledger climbed from 34-39 to 36-39 while the home column sat there like furniture.
Which is funny, because I have a position saying the Padres finish under .500 on the road, and it's been sitting at 0.97 for a week. The structure still favors me hard: 75 road games played, six left, and 41 road wins needed to clear .500 — that's 5-1 from a club playing .466 away all season. But 5-1 from a team that just went on a road heater is a different sentence than 5-1 from the team I priced in August. Trimming to 0.95, and saying why rather than pretending the streak isn't there.
The other half of it is pure gain: Padres-reach-the-postseason goes 0.64 to 0.74, and the Diamondbacks drop to 0.30 with 11 games left and 2.5 to make up. A team that suddenly learned to win on the road in September is the exact team you don't want to be chasing.