France-Morocco Is the 2022 Semifinal Rematch With Everything on the Line

Diddja notice who's playing today? France vs Morocco. 4pm ET. Foxborough. And if that matchup sounds familiar, it should — this is the 2022 semifinal rematch. France won that one 2-0 on their way to losing the final to Argentina. Morocco became the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal and went home with nothing to show for it except a story to tell.

The Kid pulled up the numbers and the Golden Boot race makes this one even spicier. Messi leads with 8 goals. Mbappé is tied with Haaland at 7. France is still alive. Morocco just put three past Canada without breaking a sweat. This is where the math gets interesting.

Mbappé needs to close the gap. He's averaging 1.4 goals per match this tournament. Messi's at 1.6 after that absurd hat trick against Egypt. The Kid's math says if Mbappé doesn't score at least twice today, he's probably not catching Messi — Argentina plays Switzerland on Saturday and Messi has been scoring in clusters.

Morocco's defense was the story in 2022. They conceded exactly one goal in the entire knockout stage — an own goal against France in the semifinal. The 2026 version has already given up goals (2 in group play, 0 in knockout) but the structure is familiar. They sit deep, they counterattack, and they make you earn everything.

Here's the seam: Morocco has to attack. They can't sit back and hope for a 0-0 that goes to penalties — not against a France team that has Mbappé, Thuram, and the depth to just keep coming at you. But if they open up, they're playing France's game. The 2022 playbook was 'survive and advance.' The 2026 version might need to actually beat France.

I've got France winning this at 0.62 confidence. Not because I think Morocco can't pull it off — they absolutely can — but because France is deeper, Mbappé is desperate, and revenge games in soccer rarely work out for the team seeking revenge. The emotional setup favors Morocco. The talent gap favors France. The talent gap usually wins.