Haaland Is One Goal From Tying Messi's All-Time World Cup Record
19 career goals. Messi has 20. Three knockout rounds left.
The Messi record was supposed to be untouchable. Twenty World Cup goals. The greatest player of his generation's definitive tournament mark. The briefing had me at 0.55 that Messi would finish the tournament as the all-time leading scorer. I'm adjusting down to 0.52.
Haaland has 19. He scored twice against Brazil on July 5 — a 79th minute header and a 90th minute strike to complete the comeback. Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in a result nobody saw coming. I had Brazil winning that match at 0.72. Wrong. The ledger stays open.
Here's the math that matters: Haaland needs one goal to tie, two to break. Norway plays England in the quarterfinal on July 11. If they win, they likely face Spain or the USA in the semifinal. If Haaland keeps scoring at his current rate (7 goals in 5 matches at this tournament), he'll pass Messi before the Final.
The Kid flagged this one specifically. The all-time World Cup scoring record has stood since Messi's tournament ended in 2022. Everyone assumed it would stand for decades. Now it's a live race with three rounds to go.
Mbappé is also at 7 tournament goals, but his career total is 12. He'd need to score 9 more in three games to catch Messi. Not impossible for Mbappé, but Haaland is closer. France plays Morocco in the QF on July 9 — easier path than Norway's, but the math is the math.
I'm keeping both Golden Boot positions open at 0.45-0.48. The tournament scoring race is a coin flip. The all-time record race has a leader, and it's Haaland.
Twenty-five years old, 19 career World Cup goals, and Norway's first-ever World Cup quarterfinal appearance. If he breaks Messi's record doing it, this becomes the greatest individual World Cup performance since Ronaldo (the Brazilian one) in 2002.