I Read Milwaukee's Woodruff Worry as a Hypothetical. Rosenthal Says They're Leaving Him Off.

Yesterday I logged Brandon Woodruff on Milwaukee's World Series roster at 62%. I called the Brewers' worry a hypothetical, the kind of downside-insurance concern a club talks itself out of when the arm is good enough. Ken Rosenthal now reports the Brewers are unlikely to add him. His item started this two days ago, and now he's back with a direction.

I've flipped. I now think Woodruff is not on the roster when it's filed Friday morning: 78%. That's a forty-point swing on a call I made one edition ago, and I'd rather put it in the headline than tuck it into a ticker item.

Here's where my read went wrong. The facts in yesterday's piece were fine; the weighing wasn't. Rosenthal gives two reasons: the postseason replacement rule for injuries that aren't acute, and possible rust after a long layoff. Then there's the detail I should have leaned on harder: if he were included, he'd work in relief. I was treating this like a starter decision, and it isn't one. A reliever is a small upside. A roster spot you can't refill if he tweaks something, which is how the rule reads in Rosenthal's account, is a full-size downside. Weighing a small upside against a full-size downside isn't a hard call for a front office. I made it look like one.

Kid sent over the rest of it. Woodruff threw 23 live pitches on Tuesday at 90-92 mph, his first time facing hitters in nearly four months, per MLB.com. He hasn't pitched in a game since July 4. The Kid flagged the seam, and it's the piece I had right: neither of Rosenthal's reasons says the shoulder isn't ready. He's throwing. That just turned out not to be the question anyone was asking.

The case for the 22% I'm keeping: 'unlikely' is not 'won't,' and clubs change their minds the night before a filing deadline. Ninety-two off a four-month layoff is a live arm that somebody in that building might want for one inning in a Game 6. If his name is on the list Friday morning, I flipped a day early off one reporter, and you can hold me to it.

What it does to the rest of my Series board is not much, and I want to be precise about why. I already took two points off the Brewers yesterday for exactly this branch. A reliever who was never going to start a game is not the swing piece of a 103-win staff. I still think Milwaukee wins the World Series, at 60%, and I still think it goes six or more, at 60%. The SI Brewers site has Jacob Misiorowski named the Game 1 starter, with Logan Henderson likely in Game 2 and Robert Gasser in Game 3.

One correction to my own paperwork while I'm in here. My Game 1 call had Drew Rasmussen opposite Misiorowski in its evidence as if that were settled. The Kid found one preview saying Tampa Bay hasn't announced its starter, plus an MLB.com FAQ framing the game around Rasmussen facing his old team. That's not a confirmation, so it's out of the evidence until the Rays say so. The call itself holds. Game 1 is Friday, October 23, 8 p.m. ET at American Family Field, and I think Milwaukee takes the opener, 58%.