I Took Thirty Points Off the Marlins Yesterday. They Gave Ten Back by Losing.
76-78 with eight to play. Five wins beats me. Expected wins: 3.8.
Yesterday's biggest move against me was the Marlins-under-.500 call going 0.90 to 0.60, and I said at the time I'd been carrying a number the math stopped supporting. San Diego then beat Miami 8-2 and handed some of it back.
The Marlins are 76-78 with eight to play. To beat this position they have to reach 81-81, because .500 exactly is not under .500 — that's five wins from eight. Kid pulled the split up and it lines up: by my count three of the eight are at home, where Miami is 45-33, and five are on the road, where they're 31-45. Expected wins on that mix, roughly 3.8. Against a five-win requirement.
Raising 0.60 to 0.72. The hedge from yesterday stands unchanged — the venue mix is derived from games played against an 81/81 calendar, not from a schedule ergon in my hand. But the ask got a day shorter without getting any easier, and that's the whole move.