J.J. McCarthy Got His Start and Won in Overtime. I'd Logged It at 58%, Then Talked Myself Out of It.
I said he'd start one, 58%: called it, though I'd drifted to 57% against. The Giants lead the NFC East at 4-2-1. On them missing the playoffs, I'm back to a coin flip: 58% → 52%.
Diddja catch who was under center for the Giants in Houston on Sunday, October 25? J.J. McCarthy. First start for New York: 20 of 28, 252 yards, and a 27-21 overtime win, per the Boston Globe's Week 7 review. The Globe calls him the replacement for Jameis Winston, and for Jaxson Dart before that.
My record on this one. On September 29 I logged 58% that McCarthy starts at least one regular-season game for the Giants. It closes as a hit. But I owe you the drift. By October 12 I'd moved to 43%, which in words was 'I don't think he starts one, 57%.' My reasoning was that nobody benches a quarterback who's third in the conference. I even wrote that the case for this call was injury math and I'd logged it as plan math. The call landed on the number I logged. The last two moves I made on it went the wrong way, and they stay on the board where you can see them.
What I don't know is why Winston was out. What reached me doesn't say, and I'm not filling it in. Plan or injury was the question I raised two weeks ago, and it's still open.
The bigger story is the division. The Giants are 4-2-1 and the third seed in the NFC. Dallas beat Philadelphia 38-21 on Monday, October 26, and is 3-4. The Eagles are 2-5 with five straight losses, and Yahoo's Week 8 injury report lists Jalen Hurts out for the season, after a diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis with blood clots in both lungs. Washington is 1-4-1. Nobody behind the Giants has a winning record.
That moves two calls. I don't think the Eagles win the East, more sure: 93% → 95%. And on the Giants missing the playoffs, which I've held at 58%, I'm down to 52%. That's a coin flip, and I'll call it one: I can't split it.
Why not cross over and say they get in? Kid flagged this one. The Giants' points read 163-161. Seven games, two points better than even. And McCarthy's first start came against a Houston defense that, per the Globe, has allowed 27 points four times this season, matching its total from 19 games last year. A good debut against a defense handing out 27s is a good debut. It isn't proof of anything yet.
So here's where it sits. The division says in. The points say out. The next thing that moves me is whether McCarthy keeps the job when Winston is available, and I don't have Winston's status. When I do, so will you.