Monaco Is the One Track Where Antonelli's Flaw Becomes Fatal
Five races. Five lost leads at the start. The clutch paddle isn't fixed.
The Kid flagged this one before Canada and it happened again: Kimi Antonelli has lost the lead at the start in all five races of the 2026 season. Mercedes introduced a new clutch paddle before the Canadian GP. In the Sprint, it worked — first time all season Mercedes held 1-2 into Turn 1. In the race, Antonelli lost positions at the start anyway.
Monaco has the shortest run to Turn 1 on the calendar. It's also the track where overtaking is nearly impossible. If Antonelli qualifies on pole Saturday and loses the lead into Sainte Dévote on Sunday, he spends 78 laps stuck behind whoever got there first.
Charles Leclerc opened as the betting favorite at +200 to +225. Ferrari is the stated team to beat at Monaco. Leclerc has four poles here. The power advantage Mercedes carries everywhere else matters less on a track with no long straights.
Antonelli leads the championship by 43 points with 19 races to go. He can afford to lose Monaco. But if the clutch problem isn't fixed by June 7, the question shifts from 'when does the championship get wrapped up' to 'what happens when this flaw matters in Abu Dhabi.' Practice starts Friday.