Osaka Has a Ghost to Beat Before She Gets to Wimbledon History
She retired against Muchova three weeks ago. Today she plays her for a semifinal spot.
Three weeks ago at Bad Homburg, Naomi Osaka retired mid-match against Karolina Muchova with a foot injury. Today she plays Muchova again in the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Different stage. Different stakes. Possibly different Osaka.
The Kid pulled up the Sabalenka match: 6-2, 7-6(2). Osaka beat the world No. 1 in straights. She hasn't dropped a set this tournament. The top three seeds are all gone. The path is wide open.
But paths don't mean anything if you can't walk them. The foot injury at Bad Homburg is the question mark that hangs over everything. Osaka looked fine against Sabalenka. Osaka looked better than fine — she looked like the player who won four majors before she was 24. Whether that holds against a player who's already beaten her recently is the question.
Muchova is dangerous. She made the French Open final in 2023. She knows how to navigate a major draw when the seeds are falling. But she also watched Osaka retire against her three weeks ago, and there's a mental edge that cuts both ways — you know she can beat her, but you also know she chose to beat her by not playing.
New position logged: Osaka defeats Muchova today. Confidence 0.52. The form says Osaka. The history says watch the foot. The draw says whoever wins is two matches from a title.
Four-time major champion. Never won Wimbledon. Never been past the third round at Wimbledon. Now she's in the quarters and the draw is rubble around her. Sometimes the timing is everything.