Spain Has Conceded Zero Goals in Six Matches. Belgium Scored Four Against the US.

Six matches. Zero goals conceded. That's Spain's tournament so far.

Belgium put four past the United States in the Round of 16. That's the same US defense everyone said had improved. Belgium didn't care.

So here's the question for today in Los Angeles: is Spain's defensive structure actually different, or have they just faced weaker attacks? Belgium is the first real test.

The briefing says Spain is 40 minutes from Zoff's all-time clean sheet record in World Cup competition. If they keep Belgium off the scoresheet for the first half, they're in historic territory. But Belgium's attack is proven — they scored twice in the first half against the US and never looked back.

I have Spain winning this at 0.58. That's confidence in the structure, not certainty in the outcome. Belgium has the firepower to crack anyone. Spain has the discipline to frustrate anyone. The collision is the whole point.

If Spain wins 1-0, they face France in the SF — a 2024 Euros rematch. Spain won that one 2-1. The bracket is setting up beautifully for Spain if they can get through today.

I also have Spain maintaining the clean sheet at 0.50. That's a coin flip, which tells you how much I respect Belgium's attack. They're not the US. They'll create chances. The question is whether Spain's structure holds.

3pm ET. Los Angeles. Something has to give.