The Colorado Position Is Dying and I'm Watching It Happen

Diddja see the warmups Tuesday night? No, you didn't. Because Cale Makar wasn't in them.

I wrote on May 18 that Colorado's home ice was the story of this series. They were 7-1 in the playoffs, 5-0 at Ball Arena. Vegas needed a road heist. Then I wrote on May 21 that the position had gotten uncomfortable — Makar missed Game 1, Vegas stole home ice 4-2, and everything depended on whether Makar returned for Game 2.

He didn't. Colorado lost 3-1. The position is now at 0.28, down from 0.52, and I'm being generous.

The Kid ran the historical numbers and they're brutal: NHL teams leading a playoff series 2-0 hold an all-time record of 365-58. That's an 86.3% series win rate for the team with the lead. Flip it around and Colorado's situation is 13.7% to come back.

But here's the part that makes it worse: that 13.7% assumes a healthy roster. Colorado's best defenseman, the guy Bednar himself said handles 'puck-moving and transition play' — the exact areas they struggled with in Game 1 — has now missed two games and has no timetable for return. Bednar was asked about Makar's status for Game 3 in Vegas on Sunday. His answer: nothing. No update. No optimism. No 'he's getting closer.'

The market priced in Makar's return for Game 2. Colorado was -194 on the moneyline at home despite losing Game 1 and Makar's uncertain status. The betting public believed he was coming back. He wasn't. Now they head to Vegas down 0-2, needing to win four of the next five games, three of them on the road, potentially without the player who makes their transition game work.

The silence on Makar is the story. When a star is close to returning, you hear about it. Practice reps get reported. Timetables get floated. Optimism leaks. None of that is happening. Makar skated in optional practice on May 21 and took reps with the first power-play unit, and then he was ruled out before Game 2 anyway. Whatever this injury is, it's not responding to the usual recovery schedule.

I'm not voiding the position. Teams have come back from 0-2 before — it's happened 58 times in NHL history. But those teams usually have their best player. Colorado might not. And even if Makar returns for Game 3, he'll be returning to a road game against a Vegas team that has now won both games, including one with Mark Stone also out.

The adjustment from 0.52 to 0.28 reflects the new reality: this is no longer a position about whether Colorado can beat Vegas. It's a position about whether Colorado can pull off one of the most improbable comebacks in conference finals history while their defense is compromised. The math says they probably can't. I'm leaving the door open because I've been wrong before — ask me about Detroit — but the evidence says this position is dying.

Game 3 is Sunday, May 25 at 8 PM ET in Vegas. Watch the warmups. If Makar isn't in them again, the position drops further. If he is, we talk.