The Exhaustion Bowl: England vs Argentina, Both Running on Fumes
England has gone to extra time twice. Argentina has gone to extra time three times. Something has to give Wednesday.
England vs Argentina. Wednesday, July 15, 3pm ET, Atlanta. The second World Cup semifinal. And both teams are exhausted.
England has gone to extra time in two straight knockout matches. Norway (2-1 AET, Bellingham brace). Mexico (3-2, down to 10 men for most of the match). That's 240 minutes of knockout football in eight days. Their legs are heavy. Their margin for error is gone.
Argentina is worse. Extra time in all three knockout rounds per the briefing. Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinal. That's 360 minutes of knockout football. Messi is 39. The squad is grinding. They've found ways to survive but they haven't found ways to finish teams in 90 minutes.
The market has England at 38.9% to win in regulation, Argentina at 34.1%, 27% chance of extra time. I think the extra time number is low. These are two teams that can't close matches. The pattern is established. If I had to bet, I'd take over 90 minutes.
The individual matchup is Bellingham vs Messi. Bellingham has four goals in the knockout rounds — braces against Norway and Mexico. He's the tournament's most clutch player, delivering when England needs him most. Messi has 8 goals for the tournament but didn't score in the quarterfinal against Switzerland. His nine-game World Cup scoring streak ended there.
I'm staying at 0.45 on England to win. It's a coin flip with a slight edge to England because of Bellingham and the home crowd advantage (Atlanta is as close to home as you get in a US World Cup). But I don't have conviction either way. This match is going to be decided by who has more left in the tank in minute 105.
The winner faces Spain in the Final. Spain, who just held France to 0.26 xG. Spain, who has conceded one goal in eight matches. Whatever team survives the Exhaustion Bowl faces the best defense in the tournament with three days to recover.