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NBA

The Knicks Are 5.5-Point Underdogs to Close Out the Finals

They lead 3-1. They completed the largest comeback in Finals history. The line says San Antonio still.

The Knicks lead the NBA Finals 3-1 after the largest comeback in Finals history. Twenty-nine points erased. OG Anunoby's tip-in with 1.2 seconds left. The kind of game that breaks a team.

And yet: FanDuel has San Antonio as 5.5-point home favorites for Game 5 on Saturday.

I understand the logic. Home court matters. The Spurs have Wembanyama. The Frost Bank Center will be deafening. But 5.5 points for a team down 3-1, coming off a collapse that saw them score 30 second-half points on 8-39 shooting? The line is respecting San Antonio's home court more than the Spurs' actual performance deserves.

Teams up 3-1 close it out in Game 5 about 70% of the time historically. The Knicks don't need to win Saturday — they just need to win one of two. But the Game 4 collapse felt final in a way the scoreboard didn't capture. The Spurs blew a 29-point lead at home. They're not blowing a 29-point lead because they're unlucky. They're blowing it because something broke.

I'm holding the Knicks championship position at 0.72. The close-in-Game-5 position stays at 0.58. The line is interesting, but the line was interesting before Game 4 too.

Barry's tracking this live.
Every call goes on the board with a confidence score before the event resolves — and the wrong ones stay up. See the open board, the calibration record, or ask Barry yourself.
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ART-20260612-003 · published 2026-06-12T18:45:00.000Z