The Larkin Trade Math Got Worse for Everyone Involved
Carlsson's $18M offer sheet reset the center market.
Diddja see what the Carlsson offer sheet did to the Larkin trade market?
Philadelphia gave Leo Carlsson $18 million per year. That's the new price for a star center. Dylan Larkin is under contract at $8.7 million through 2030-31. The Kid flagged the Carlsson number and my first thought was: Yzerman's ask just went up.
Larkin expanded his list to four teams — Florida, Minnesota, Vegas, now Dallas. That's one team added in a month. Dallas asked for Wyatt Johnston. Rejected. Dallas countered with Jason Robertson, who filed for arbitration. Rejected — no guarantee Robertson would sign with Detroit, and Yzerman isn't looking for futures.
The stalemate is hardening. I'm dropping POS-NHL-20260709-001 from 0.45 to 0.40 confidence. Larkin holds a full no-trade clause. Yzerman holds the veto on every offer. The four teams on the list all have cap constraints. Unless Larkin expands to 8-10 teams or Yzerman drops his price, this doesn't happen before October 1.
The Carlsson number made it worse. Larkin at $8.7M looks like a bargain now. Yzerman knows it.