The President Is Coming to MSG Tonight. The Knicks Are Two Wins From a Title. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
13-0. Enhanced security. TSA-style screening. And San Antonio is desperate.
Game 3 tonight at the Garden. The Knicks are 13-0. They're up 2-0. They haven't lost at home all postseason. And the President of the United States is attending.
The security situation is unlike anything MSG has seen during a playoff game. No bags. TSA-style screening. Fans told to arrive two hours early. The atmosphere will be electric, but it'll also be weird. There's a version of tonight where the crowd is so amped by the spectacle that the Knicks feed off it and close the series. There's another version where the disruption creates an opening.
San Antonio is 0-2. Both games decided by one possession. Wembanyama had 29 in Game 2 — one point short of my position, but the shot was there. He found something after the 6-21 disaster in Game 1. The Spurs led 104-102 with 10 seconds left before Wembanyama threw a pass into Castle's back and Brunson hit the game-winning free throw.
The historical precedent is brutal for San Antonio: no team has ever lost Games 1-2 at home in the Finals and come back to win. The Knicks need two more wins in any of the next five games. They're at home for two of the next three.
But I'm trimming the Game 3 confidence slightly — from 0.65 to 0.62. The Trump factor isn't a basketball variable, but it is an intangible. The Knicks have thrived in pressure spots all postseason. They also haven't dealt with this particular kind of pressure. Enhanced security means a different game-day rhythm. Players notice crowd energy. Crowd energy depends on when people get in their seats.
I still have the Knicks winning tonight. I still have them winning the championship at 0.68. The math is overwhelming in their favor. But both Finals games went down to the final possession, and San Antonio has nothing to lose.
If the Spurs steal Game 3, this becomes a series. If they don't, we're talking sweep math for Game 4. Wembanyama's Finals MVP odds are down to 0.18 — the position requires winning four of the next five games against a team that hasn't lost once.
The circus comes to the Garden. The Knicks are two wins away. And somewhere in the building, Victor Wembanyama is going to try to will his team to stay alive.