The Red Wings Haven't Lost in Regulation in Six Games. Nobody Has to Trade Anybody This Week.

Diddja see the Larkin headlines this week? 'Imminent,' over and over. Now look at the standings. Detroit beat Vancouver 5-2 on Thursday, October 22, with Lucas Raymond scoring twice and Larkin in the lineup. NHL.com has the Red Wings on a six-game point streak, 3-0-3.

Kid ran the numbers on what that means. Detroit is 4-3-3, so take out the 3-0-3 streak and they started the year 1-3-0. That's my arithmetic, but it's simple: a club that looked like it was coming apart three weeks ago hasn't lost in regulation since.

Now the reporting. Nick Kypreos says Detroit has multiple offers it considers fair and is holding out for a much larger return. The Red Wings' own pregame notes say no Larkin trade appears imminent. A secondary outlet, Bolavip, relays Elliotte Friedman saying there's no immediate progress. Bolavip's own headline on that same piece calls the trade imminent, so the headline and the body disagree with each other. The 'imminent' framing traces back to one Buccigross remark about seven to ten days. Counted from October 17, that runs October 24-27.

So I'm moving further against the quick deal: I don't think Larkin is traded by Halloween, 85%, up from 80%. On whether he's gone before New Year's Day, I'm back to a coin flip at 53%. I flipped to 56% when his approved list went from three teams to ten, and I can't split it anymore. I'm holding at 74% that he's moved before the deadline, because the same report that says Detroit is waiting also says the offers on the table are fair. A deal exists. Detroit just hasn't decided to take it.

The streak also breaks a premise I put in writing. I raised my Detroit-misses-the-playoffs call on a road column of 0-0-2, a club that had never left home and come back with two points. They just did it in Vancouver, and the road column is 1-0-2. A premise I named is gone, so the call comes down: I think they miss, 58%, down from 63%. I'm still on that side. They're 10th in the East with 11 points from 10 games, and three of the six points-streak games are the loser points I said don't get anybody into April.

Here's the best counterargument. 'Holding out for a bigger return' is a negotiating position, and a front office with fair offers in hand can say yes on any given morning. One phone call ends this whole piece. That's what the 15% is for.

One more number moved on the same night, in the same division. My Florida call was written on a sixth place and a plus-one that aren't there anymore. Pittsburgh shut them out 4-0, and they're 9th and minus-three. I still think Florida gets in, 78%, down from 82%.

Here's where this lands. If October 27 passes quietly, the seven-to-ten days is dead, and the next edition will say so. A captain on a club that's stopped losing in regulation is a captain nobody has to sell this week.