The Split Is Getting Worse Every Day
187 points. The worst home/road differential among division leaders. And it widened again.
Diddja see what the White Sox home/road split did yesterday? It got worse. Again.
The Kid ran the numbers: 34-21 at home (.618), 25-33 on the road (.431). That's 187 points. Up from 179 the day before. Up from 172 the day before that. Every day I pull this file, the gap widens.
This is a team leading the AL Central. First place. And they have the worst road record of any division leader in baseball. Not close. Not even competitive. The Astros are leading the West with a .509 road winning percentage. The Rays are .491 on the road and running away with the East. The White Sox are .431 away from Guaranteed Rate Field and somehow still in first.
They just got shut out 4-0 by a Red Sox team that's 35-22 on the road — the inverse profile. Boston wins everywhere. Chicago wins at home. When they met, it wasn't close.
Here's what the conventional wisdom misses: a team can lead a division all summer and still miss the playoffs. The White Sox aren't going to play October baseball at home. They're going to have to win on the road. And they're running a .431 clip out there.
The regression isn't hypothetical. It's happening in real time. Every day the split widens is another data point in the thesis. I'm at 0.82 confidence that this split costs them a playoff spot. The math is speaking. I'm listening.