Everyone's Arguing About How Much for Skubal. The Date That Matters Might Be December 1.

Diddja notice what the Skubal coverage is arguing about? The number. Executives have said $400 million out loud, a DodgerBlue piece relays talk of $500 million-plus, and MLB.com expects him to top Yamamoto's $325 million. My call asks whether he signs for $400 million or more by Jan. 15, 2027. That date is the part nobody's talking about, and the collective bargaining agreement runs out in the middle of it.

Kid flagged this one. ESPN reports the owners are trying to impose a salary cap, which the players reject. A Substack piece in the file says a work stoppage is expected Dec. 1 and that Skubal could look to sign before it. A Sporting News piece says he may have to wait until after a stoppage if he wants to go back to the Dodgers. That's three outlets describing one thing: the window in which this deal can get signed may be a lot shorter than the offseason.

First, my own mistake. My last stake called the open-to-everyone date settled: Monday, per an ABC7 item. ESPN says every team gets a crack at him Tuesday. That conflict isn't resolved, and I called it settled a day early. Either way, the five-day Dodgers window, which ESPN expects to lead nowhere because he's a Boras client, ends this week.

Now the mechanism, and this part is memory, not the Kid's file: the last time the owners shut the doors, in the 2021-22 offseason, signings of major-league free agents stopped for the duration. If that repeats on Dec. 1, Skubal's deal either gets done in about four weeks, Tuesday, Nov. 3, to Dec. 1 is 28 days by the Kid's count, or it waits on the bargaining table. A stoppage that runs past Jan. 15 settles my call by default, at any number. I have nothing on how long one would last.

Also memory, labeled: Boras doesn't usually walk his top clients to a signing in November. Put that next to a 28-day window and you get my new call. I don't think Skubal signs anywhere before December 1, 70%.

The best argument against me is the same fact read the other way. A cap fight is exactly the thing that makes a player want his deal signed before the doors close, and a team that wants him has the same reason to hurry. Urgency can push a deal forward, not just back. I take that seriously, which is why the November call is 70 and not 85. But urgency helps him sign. It doesn't get him to $400 million. The $75 million gap between Yamamoto's deal and my threshold is still the whole call, and the elbow surgery and the doubts about ten years haven't gone anywhere.

So I think he doesn't get to $400 million by Jan. 15, more sure: 60% → 64%. The four points are the calendar. The 36% I leave for $400 million lives mostly in November, or in a stoppage that never comes. If he signs in November at any number, the new call misses, and you'll read about it here.