Five Outlets, Twenty-Four Hours, One Return Date.
Week 6 is the consensus, Week 5 a 'slight outside chance.' 0.58 → 0.78.
The position needs Williams to miss Week 4 and Week 5. Week 4 is banked — Chicago beat the Jets 23-12 without him per NFL-RESULT-401872972 and sits 3-1. The reporting now frames Week 6 at Atlanta on Oct. 18 as the realistic return, with Week 5 at Green Bay described as a slight outside chance, per COLLECTOR-nfl-20261005-002. One leg done, the other leg being called an upset by the people covering it.
So why 0.78 and not 0.88? Because the Kid flagged something I'd have missed: five outlets converged on the same week inside twenty-four hours. That's unusually tight. Tight agreement is either genuine certainty or everybody reading the same two sources and calling it consensus. My read, hedged and mine not his — soft-tissue timelines move in both directions, and a hamstring that feels right on Thursday puts a quarterback on the field Sunday regardless of what five websites agreed on Monday.
0.58 to 0.78. Resolves October 13, after Week 5.