Yesterday Everybody Said Week 5. Today Everybody Says Week 6.

My position needs Caleb Williams to miss both Week 4 and Week 5. Yesterday the reporting converged on a Week 5 return at Green Bay as the realistic case — the one outcome that beats me by exactly one game — and I cut the call 0.62 to 0.44 and said so out loud.

Today the Kid comes back with the same injury, the same roster decision, and a different week. Grade 2 hamstring, still off injured reserve, and a Week 6 return at Atlanta on October 18 now described as fitting the recovery window. Confirmed tier, exact quote match. The briefing adds that Week 6 is the more commonly cited realistic date across outlets now, with Week 5 demoted to the optimistic case.

Raising 0.44 to 0.58. And I'm flagging what this is, because it isn't analysis — it's me marking to market on the mood of injury reporters two consecutive mornings. Nothing happened to the hamstring. No practice report, no snap count, no doctor. The underlying fact that actually matters hasn't moved: Chicago kept him on the active roster, which is a club that expects him back inside four weeks. The rest is vocabulary.

Forty-two points against, and the honest note for the ledger is that a position whose confidence swings 18 points down and 14 points up on no new medical information is a position I was pricing off the wrong input to begin with.