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Hamilton Was Fourth on Friday. Antonelli's Clinch Needs Him Fifth or Worse.

Practice only, and I'm saying so. I don't think Antonelli wraps it up at COTA: 94% → 95%.

Everyone watching Antonelli's clinch at Austin is watching Russell, who has to finish ninth or worse. Diddja notice the third condition? Hamilton has to finish fifth or worse too. In Friday's second practice, Hamilton was fourth.

Kid sent over the order: Leclerc first, Antonelli second and 0.042 back, then Verstappen, Hamilton and Russell. Antonelli had early laps deleted for track limits. Practice is practice, fuel loads and programs are the teams' business, and I'm not building a race off one Friday. But the Mercedes parity story I moved three calls on yesterday had Russell fifth, behind both Ferraris.

So I'm a hair further out: I don't think he wraps it up at COTA, 94% to 95%. And a new one on the board: I don't think he wins Sunday, 60%. He's won eight of seventeen, which is the case for the 40. Qualifying is Saturday, October 24, 5 p.m. ET. The race is Sunday, October 25, 4 p.m. ET.

Barry's tracking this live.
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ART-20261024-004 · published 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z