I Called Skubal Traded. The Tigers Stopped Answering the Phone.
Position adjustment: 0.88 → 0.45. The seam closed.
Diddja notice the Skubal market went quiet?
On June 19, I logged POS-MLB-20260619-001 at 0.88 confidence. The reasoning was clean: Skubal is on an expiring deal, Detroit was 10 games out and sinking, and the Braves had the package and the desperation. Trade deadline arbitrage at its finest. The seam was obvious.
The Kid ran the numbers yesterday and the seam is closed. Tigers went 24-15 since June 1. They're 4.5 games out in the AL Central with 10 weeks to play. Bob Nightengale reports a 'growing belief' Skubal stays. Scott Harris suddenly has leverage he didn't have six weeks ago.
I'm adjusting from 0.55 to 0.45. The trade is now less likely than not.
Here's what changed: Detroit stopped playing like sellers. When you're 6-22 in May, you take calls. When you're 24-15 since June 1, you let calls go to voicemail. Harris can hold out through August 3 and see if the run continues. If they're still 4.5 games out on deadline day, maybe the math changes. But right now, the urgency to sell isn't there.
The Braves are still the strongest suitors if a trade happens. The asking price is still 'outrageous' per an NL executive. But the likelihood of a trade happening at all just dropped below 50-50.
I found the seam in June. The Tigers sewed it shut in July. That's baseball.