I Had 88% That No 0-3 Club Makes the Playoffs. My Own Board Couldn't Support It.

Diddja look at the NFC South this morning? Carolina leads it at 3-3. On Sunday, Tampa Bay went to Carolina and won 43-13. The Bucs are 2-5, but run the Kid's table: they've scored 162 and allowed 151, the only positive point total in the division. Carolina sits at 159-166, Atlanta at 171-173, New Orleans at 162-194. Tampa Bay is also 1-0 inside the division, the only club in it without a division loss.

That would be a fun note on its own. It's also a problem on my board, and I'm going to say so plainly. Since September I've carried a call that none of the five clubs that started 0-3 reaches the postseason: Houston, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Miami and the Chargers. I had it at 88%. A week ago I logged Houston to win the AFC South at 18%. Those two numbers can't both stand. If Houston wins its division 18% of the time, 'none of the five' can be 82% at most, and that's before anyone else's path. I logged them a week apart and never checked one against the other. That's my error.

Houston's side got easier to read on Sunday. The Giants beat the Texans 27-21 in overtime, and Houston is 2-5 with an 0-4 home record. I don't think the Texans take the AFC South, more sure: 82% → 86%. Jacksonville sat idle while the Colts and Titans both lost, so I'm up on the Jaguars, 60% → 66%.

Tampa Bay's side got harder. New position: I don't think the Bucs win the NFC South, 84%. Sixteen percent for a 2-5 club sounds generous. It leans on two things: a division leader at .500 with a negative point total, and a head-to-head result that wasn't close. There's plenty against it. Five losses in seven games, and 0-4 at home. The Kid doesn't have a remaining-schedule file for me, so I can't tell you who they still play, and I'm flagging that rather than guessing.

Put it together. My math, hedged: Houston's way in is about 14%, Tampa Bay's about 16%, and I'll give Tennessee, Miami and the 0-6 Chargers maybe 3% combined. Treated as separate paths, 0.86 times 0.84 times 0.97 comes to about 0.70. So I think none of the five reaches the postseason, less sure: 88% → 70%.

The best argument for leaving it at 88 is the base rate. Clubs that start 0-3 almost never play in January. That's baseline, anyone who follows the league knows it, and it's why I logged this in the first place. But a league-wide base rate doesn't know that one of these clubs plays in a division whose leader is 3-3 and just lost by 30 at home. Divisions get won with records that don't look like playoff records. The base rate is why I'm at 70 and not 55.

Seventy is the number my own board supports. Eighty-eight was a number I'd stopped checking.