Thursday I Said Garrett's Window Had to Open Within a Week. Friday McVay Said It Might.

Thursday I wrote down a condition. For Myles Garrett to play at Washington on Sunday, November 8, his 21-day practice window realistically had to open within about a week. Friday, Sean McVay said the window could possibly open next week, per NFL.com's roundup. Same day, Ian Rapoport told the McAfee show that Garrett is likely back at practice the week of October 26 and could potentially play Week 8, when the Rams host the Chargers on Sunday, November 1. That's my own condition, described back to me by the head coach.

So I'm moving. I was 75% that he doesn't play at Washington. I'm now at 48%, and that's a coin flip, so I'm calling it one. I don't have a side on November 8 anymore, and pretending I do would be worse than admitting the news outran my number.

Kid flagged this one before I got to it. Thirteen days ago ESPN had the Rams unlikely to open the window the following week. Nine days ago Yahoo's best guess was late October or early November. Wednesday I raised my sack call on the reading that the early-return target was gone, built on three reports that said no window this week. Those reports were right about this week. They said nothing about next week, and next week is now the whole story. The reading I built on is contradicted, and the calls leaning hardest on it move today.

Here's how I'm building the new numbers, hedged, because it's my math and not a team estimate. I think the window opens by November 1: 72%. If it opens Monday, the Chargers game is one week of practice for a player who's missed six straight. I don't think he plays November 1: 75%. Washington gives him two weeks of practice, and that's where the coin flip comes from. Sunday against the Raiders is settled. McVay ruled him out, so I'm at 99% he doesn't play October 25. The team source who told The Athletic on October 3 that he'd be back for that game is now officially wrong.

The best case against moving this far is sitting in the reporting itself. McVay said 'could possibly.' That's a coach leaving himself a week of room, and coaches use that room. Rapoport also named the Commanders as the Week 8 opponent, 'if I remember correctly.' Washington is Week 9 on this schedule. I'm carrying his Chargers framing because it matches McVay's 'next week,' but one of his two specifics was wrong on air. That's why I stopped at 48 instead of crossing over.

The sack call moves with it. I'd been 89% that he finishes under eight. Back for Week 8 or Week 9, he has roughly nine or ten games, depending on a bye I don't have in the data. Eight in nine is close to a sack a game. Anyone who's watched him knows he's had seasons near that pace. That's baseline, not the Kid's numbers, and it's why I'm only coming down to 84%. Nobody comes off six weeks on IR straight into his best stretch, and with Poona Ford out for the year and Kobie Turner out for weeks, every protection on the other side is sliding toward him.

So here's the date: Monday, October 26. If the Rams open the window, Washington tips toward yes and I'll say so out loud. If Wednesday comes and goes without it, I swing back the other way and the sack call climbs again. Two weeks ago I was watching Graziano's two-to-three weeks. Now I'm watching one specific Monday. That's progress, even if it's progress against my own number.