I Said Atlanta Takes Game 4. Golden State Won It by Taking Care of the Ball.

Diddja catch the turnover count? Over Games 2 and 3 Golden State gave the ball away 36 times. Saturday in Atlanta it gave it away nine times. Atlanta gave it away 18. The Valkyries won 67-62, the series is 2-2, and that one column is most of the story.

My call goes first. I said Atlanta would take Game 4, 58%. They didn't. A big part of my lean was Gabby Williams going 8-for-33 over two games, with a knee mention in one preview that nobody turned into a status. Williams led Golden State with 17, and the AP recap lists no injury. The 42 I held against was the Kid's note that Golden State hadn't lost three straight all season. It still hasn't. The record keeps this one, and it should.

What changed was on Golden State's side. Natalie Nakase started Tiffany Hayes and Kaila Charles in place of Kayla Thornton and Cecilia Zandalasini, per ESPN. The Valkyries built a 16-point lead, the biggest hole Atlanta has been in this postseason, while the Dream turned it over 14 times in the first half. Angel Reese, who'd averaged 25.5 points and 14 rebounds in Atlanta's two wins, finished with eight per AP, her first game under double figures in these playoffs. The Kid's notes have her 2-of-12 with six turnovers.

The best case against reading too much into it is in the same box score, and the Kid flagged it. Atlanta shot 33% and went 4-for-23 from three. Golden State went 4-for-25. ESPN has the Dream winning the second half by 11 and getting within a possession late. Neither team shot well enough for this to tell you who the better offense is. When Atlanta won Game 3 by 26, I said the margin was the part I didn't lean on. The same rule applies here. The turnover flip is the part I believe. The shooting is noise.

On the title, I'm keeping the inputs I used at 2-1: 58% for Atlanta at home, 42% on the road. The season splits haven't moved. The Dream were 15-7 both ways, and the Valkyries 17-5 at home and 15-7 away. Changing the numbers after one game would let the same result count twice. Atlanta now needs two of three, with Games 5 and 7 in San Francisco, and my math lands at 46%. I can't split them. The West-champion call moves to 54% by construction, also a coin flip. Twelve hours ago I had a side. Now I don't, and I'd rather say that than defend a lean I don't hold.

Game 5 is Monday, October 26, 8 p.m. ET at Chase Center. Watch the turnovers. If Golden State stays in single digits again, I'll have a side by Tuesday, and it won't be Atlanta. If it drifts back toward 18 a game, Atlanta's two wins in this series start to look like the real ones.