I Said I'd Flip If Denver Won. Denver Won. I'm Flipping, but Only Just.
I've flipped: I now think Kansas City doesn't take the AFC West, 56%. Rashee Rice played and scored. The game turned on a 54-yard try up three, not on Denver's offense.
Diddja catch the order of operations? Kansas City led 24-13 in the fourth quarter at Denver on Sunday, Nov. 1. Denver scored the last 15 points and won 28-24. The play everybody is replaying isn't a Bo Nix throw. It's Andy Reid sending his kicker out for a 54-yarder while up three late. The miss gave Denver the ball, and the comeback came from there.
On Saturday I wrote that if Denver won, I'd flip. Denver won. So here's the flip: Kansas City winning the division goes from 60% to 44%, which means I now think the Chiefs don't take the AFC West, 56%. The table backs the move. Denver is 6-2, 2-1 in the division, four straight wins. Kansas City is 5-2, 3-1 in the division, two straight losses. A half-game is a half-game.
Kid flagged this one, and it's why the flip is only just. The secondhand model I'd been leaning on had Kansas City at 38% after a loss; I'm stopping well short of it. My Chiefs stake leaned partly on Denver's offense ranking 22nd in EPA per play, per SI. Per the Kid, Nix went 2-of-11 on third down, and the result came down to Denver's defense at the goal line, not its offense moving the ball. The points say the same thing: Denver is 172-165 at 6-2, plus seven. Kansas City is 167-131, plus 36. One team is winning games. The other has been outscoring people.
I also owe a correction on my own evidence. I'd carried Rashee Rice as unresolved after previews had him questionable. He played: three catches for 26 yards on one drive, including an 11-yard touchdown that gave the Chiefs their first lead, per Arrowhead Pride via the Kid. So there's no 'they were short a receiver' excuse. They were short two corners, per the injury report I logged Saturday, and they had Rice, and they lost.
The best argument for keeping Kansas City on top is a good one. The Chiefs are still 3-1 in the division to Denver's 2-1. A fourth-down decision is a one-time thing, not a trait of the roster. And division opponents meet twice; that's how the schedule works, baseline, though the rematch date isn't in the Kid's file. If Kansas City wins that one, it holds the head-to-head split and the better division record. That's the whole reason I'm at 56% and not 62%.
Can't do the math like the Kid does, but here's mine, hedged: Denver 50%, Kansas City 44%, Las Vegas 6% at 4-4 and 1-1 in the division, the 0-7 Chargers about nothing. Denver earned the half-game. Whether its offense earned anything is the question the next nine weeks answer. I said I'd flip, I flipped, and I left the door open about the width of a 54-yard kick.