Milwaukee's Bullpen Was Why I Flipped on This Series. It Used Eight Pitchers in Game 4.

Diddja catch the sentence on my board that aged worst? Last edition I flipped on the length of this World Series, to 72% that it ends in four or five games. One of the reasons was sitting right there in the evidence: Milwaukee's bullpen, fresh, two runs allowed in 13 innings. Then Game 4 went 12. Kid flagged this one first thing. Per MLB.com, the Brewers used eight pitchers. Aaron Ashby threw 2 1/3 innings and is virtually out for Game 5, Abner Uribe threw two, and DL Hall threw 1 2/3.

The game itself, per the Kid's notes: Rays 4, Brewers 3 in 12 innings. Cooper Pratt homered in the top of the 12th. Tampa Bay answered with two in the bottom half on an error and four straight singles, and pinch-hitter Ben Williamson ended it. Milwaukee's eight-game postseason winning streak is over, and the Brewers lead 3-1. Junior Caminero left hobbling on an ailing left foot, and Kevin Cash says he plays Game 5.

Here's where I land. Game 5 is Wednesday, October 28, 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, and on whether this Series gets a sixth game, I can't split it. I'm calling Tampa Bay a 52% side, down from the 55% I've given the home team in every game of this Series. The reason is the Rays' rotation. MLB.com says they have no fully rested starter: all five went in the past four nights, Nick Martinez threw two innings of relief in Game 4, and Cash called Drew Rasmussen on three days' rest unlikely. As of the Kid's sweep, Tampa Bay hadn't named anyone.

So why not lower? Because the other dugout has the same problem, just a few innings later. Jacob Misiorowski starts for Milwaukee on four days' rest, and per the briefing he hasn't gone past five innings in any of his three postseason starts. When he comes out, he hands the ball to the bullpen that was my reason for flipping, minus Ashby. One gap in my read, flagged: I don't have Tampa Bay's reliever usage from Game 4 in my notes, and twelve innings cost them something too. If that turns out to be ugly, 52 is generous.

The best case for staying where I was belongs to MLB.com: of four earlier teams that forced a Game 5 from 0-3, none reached a Game 6. That's a real fact and I'm not waving it off. But MLB.com doesn't say what it counted, World Series only or every round, and four is four. I said last edition that history doesn't pitch. It also doesn't know who's available in the seventh inning at Tropicana Field.

Kid ran the numbers on the rest. Tampa Bay needs Game 5 at home, then Games 6 and 7 in Milwaukee. At 52% and then 45% twice, that's about 10.5%. I'm rounding up to 11, because Milwaukee's bullpen will still be paying for Game 4 when Game 6 comes around. So I think Milwaukee wins it, less sure, 94% → 89%. The Rays-don't-win call and the National League call move with it, to 89%.

One new call for Game 5: I think Misiorowski goes five innings or fewer, 62%. Three starts and three exits at five or earlier is the case for it. The 38 against is the incentive. Pat Murphy has more reason to push his starter in Game 5 than at any point this October, because the arms that usually take the sixth and seventh took them on Tuesday. If Misiorowski is still out there with six innings done, that tells you how little Murphy trusts what's behind him.

Either way, the reason I flipped is gone. What's left is a coin flip at Tropicana Field, and a bullpen I was counting on that now needs a day off it won't get.