Woodruff Was Supposed to Open Game 4. He Pitched the Ninth of a 10-1 Game Instead.

Diddja catch who pitched the ninth inning in Tampa on Monday, October 26? Brandon Woodruff. MLB.com had him down as the likely opener for Game 4. Instead he finished off a 10-1 game, and Milwaukee goes into Game 4, Tuesday, October 27, 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with no announced starter. MLB.com lists Dustin May, Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan or a reliever as the opener. Griffin Jax starts for Tampa Bay.

I don't know why they did it, and nobody I've read says. My guess, and it is a guess, is that a team up 3-0 doesn't need to protect anybody. ESPN expects mostly a bullpen game and calls that bullpen fresh. It has allowed two runs in 13 innings this Series. That's the group Tampa Bay has to beat twice in a row.

The game itself turned in one inning. Eight runs in the fifth, all of them with two out. CNN has seven straight two-out hits and eight two-out runs as World Series records. AP has Cam Booser coming on for Freddy Peralta and allowing four runs on four hits without getting an out. Robert Gasser threw six shutout innings. Outlets disagree on how many hits he allowed, so I'm leaving the number out.

Now my call. I held 57% that this Series went six or seven. That needed the Rays to win two of three at home. They lost the first one by nine. Kid sent over the math and it's short: the Rays now need Game 4 and Game 5. On the same 55% home rate I've used all Series, two straight comes to about 30%. I'm at 28%. In words: I've flipped, and I think this ends in four or five, 72%.

Why shade under my own number? The Rays have scored seven runs in three games. Can't do the math like the Kid does, but by my count off the reporting, they scored all four of their Game 2 runs early, Milwaukee blanked them the last eight innings of that game, and they scored once in Game 3. That's one run in their last 17 innings. Small sample, and I'm saying so. But the problem isn't one bad inning on the mound. It's an offense that's stopped.

Here's the best case against me. Tampa Bay won 98 games and went 55-26 at home. The Trop was always where they were supposed to get back into this. A team that good doesn't go quiet for a week. Fair. That's most of what's in my 28. The trouble is they've already had their first home game, and they scored one run in it.

On the title, I think Milwaukee wins it, 94%. Yahoo notes no World Series team has ever come back from 0-3. I'm not using that as a number. The Rays need four straight, two of them in Milwaukee, and on my rates that's about 6%.

What to watch: the first time through Tampa's order against whoever Milwaukee sends out first. If Jax keeps it close into the middle innings, my 28 has company. If he doesn't, the Series ends Tuesday, and a call I logged at 58% that it would go six closes as a miss. It stays on the board either way.