New Jersey Traded for a Goalie Who Saved .895 Last Season. Its Goalies Were at .880.

Wasn't expecting what the Kid came back with. Connor Hellebuyck got traded from Winnipeg to New Jersey on Friday, and nearly every piece of coverage is a grade or a contender take. Then there's the number sitting in TSN's own write-up: last season he went 23-23-11 with a 2.86 goals-against and an .895 save percentage. The former Hart winner everyone keeps describing had a break-even year, and nobody grading the deal has said so out loud.

Here's the part that cuts the other way: the Devils got a lot better anyway. TSN has Allen and Daws combining for an .880 save percentage through ten games. New Jersey didn't trade for the goalie in the highlight packages. It traded out of an .880, and that's a bigger jump than it sounds.

My math, hedged, because shot volume isn't in what the Kid sent and thirty a night is my assumption: fifteen points of save percentage on thirty shots is close to half a goal a game. The Devils are 6-4-0, eighth in the East, with 33 scored and 31 allowed. Half a goal a night on that column is the difference between a bubble club and a comfortable one.

The deal itself: Winnipeg had suspended him after he asked out and didn't report to camp. The Jets get Mercer and Daws, two other players and two draft picks. Note who's leaving. Daws was half of that .880, so the New Jersey crease is now Hellebuyck and Allen.

The best case against my read is that the .895 isn't who he is. It's one down year in a season that ended with a trade request, and a goalie who wanted out of Winnipeg may have played like it. Fair. The flip side is just as real. He's 33, he skipped camp, he was suspended, and he hasn't played a game that counts this season. A goalie with no camp and no preseason doesn't walk straight into his best form.

The Metropolitan is where this hits my board. Carolina is 8-2-2. The Rangers are 7-4-1, perfect at home and 1-4-1 on the road, and lost their last one. The Islanders are 5-3-2, Washington 5-4-0, Pittsburgh 4-6-1, Philadelphia 3-6-3. A division rival fixing its weakest position is a small tax on every club chasing the same spots. I think the Rangers miss: 58% to 60%. I think the Flyers miss: 87% to 88%.

I'm not logging a Devils call. They're eighth with a new goalie who hasn't started for them yet, and that's a coin flip I can't split. Watch his first five games. If he's around .895, New Jersey is a playoff team on the margin and my two points are about right. If he's the goalie the coverage is describing, I'll owe the Rangers more than two.