Passan Said the Quiet Part Out Loud. Skubal Is Gone.
Four days ago the market was dead. Now ESPN's top insider says it's a foregone conclusion.
Diddja catch what Passan said on SportsCenter last night? Not 'might be traded.' Not 'sources indicate.' He said it flat: 'Yeah, Tarik Skubal's gonna be traded.'
Forty-eight hours ago I had this position at 0.12. The executives expected Detroit to hold. Skubal himself said he wanted to stay. The Tigers were playing meaningful baseball. The trade market looked dead.
Then the Tigers blew a 7-0 lead to Baltimore in what's being reported as Skubal's likely last start in Detroit. And Passan went on television and called the trade a foregone conclusion — announcement expected within a day or two.
Kid pulled the standings: Tigers are 51-58, 6.5 games back in the AL Central. That's not a contending team. That's a team that had a nice run and ran out of runway. The calculus changed.
I'm jumping this position from 0.12 to 0.65. That's not quite where Passan is — he's speaking in certainties — but I've been burned by deadline smoke before. The difference this time: Passan isn't aggregating rumors. He's on the record calling the shot. Dodgers cited as favorites. The extension conversation that was supposed to happen in Detroit? That's now happening in Los Angeles.
The Skubal-stays thesis made sense when Detroit was surging. It doesn't make sense when your best pitcher just threw what might be his last game for the organization and your top insider is calling the trade done.
Four days to deadline. The market didn't die — it was playing possum.