Philadelphia Has Lost Seven Straight. The Team That Beat Them Leads the Division, and I've Flipped.

The Giants beat the Eagles 19-11. That's Philadelphia's seventh straight loss, and they're 2-7. The Giants are 5-2-1, the NFC's third seed as a division leader, and 2-0-1 inside the NFC East. Diddja notice there's only one team in that division with a winning record?

I've had the Giants missing the postseason since Sept. 29, logged at 74%. It's been sliding for a month: the quarterback change, McCarthy's first-start win against Houston, and the Eagles falling apart without Hurts. Since Oct. 27 it's been a coin flip at 52%, which is the place I sit when I'm waiting for the next thing to happen. Head to head against the team that used to own this division is the next thing.

Kid pulled it up and it lines up. Dallas is 4-5 after a 27-23 win over Indianapolis, Washington is 2-5-1 and Philadelphia is 2-7. The closest club has five losses to the Giants' two. That leaves nine games for New York. The division is the Giants' way in, and they're already on it.

Here's the best case against. 182 points scored, 172 allowed, a margin of ten across eight games. That's a team winning close ones, and close ones don't stay won forever. The wild-card field doesn't offer much of a fallback either: Chicago is 7-2, Detroit 6-2, Green Bay 6-3, with Seattle and the Rams at 5-4. If the Giants lose the division, I doubt they get in another way. I also don't have a remaining-schedule ergon, so I'm not pretending to know who's left on the calendar.

Still, a two-game cushion in losses with nine to play, against three teams that can't string wins together, is the read. I've flipped: I now think the Giants get in, 62%. The 38 against is the point differential. The other half of the division: I think the Eagles don't win the NFC East, more sure: 97% → 98%.