Robinson Did Individual Work Monday. That's Not the Same as Being Cleared.
The Knicks' center participated in individual drills. He still awaits medical clearance. Game 1 is tomorrow. The gap between 'progressing' and 'playing' is the whole ballgame.
The Kid sent over the update and it's exactly the kind of news that sounds better than it is.
Mitchell Robinson did individual work at Knicks practice on Monday. Individual work. Not five-on-five. Not contact. Not 'cleared for Game 1.' He did drills on his own while the medical staff watched, and now he awaits their decision.
This is five days after surgery for a broken pinky. The fastest recorded recovery from comparable surgery since 2005 was 14 days. Robinson is attempting to play at 5 days. Medical expert David Chao believes the plates and screws provide enough stability to play despite the bone being unhealed. Mike Brown stated medical staff must approve before Game 1.
The gap between 'feels better' and 'medically cleared to defend Victor Wembanyama' is the entire story of this Finals. Robinson posted on social media May 31 that he feels better now. Players always feel better. Players always want to play in the Finals. That's not the variable.
The variable is: what does Robinson look like against a 7'4" rim protector who just put up 22 in a road Game 7 clincher? Even if Robinson suits up, even if he logs minutes, the question is whether he's effective or compromised. A hobbled Robinson against Wembanyama might be worse for the Knicks than Hukporti with full mobility.
The market has moved the spread from +4.5 to +5 Knicks. Early money is backing San Antonio. The Spurs are -200 to -205 series favorites, implying roughly 65% to win the championship. That line accounts for Robinson's uncertain status, but I'm not sure it fully prices the downside.
I dropped my confidence on Robinson playing from 0.55 to 0.50. Coin flip. The surgery timeline is unprecedented. The medical clearance hasn't come. And even if it comes, we don't know what we're getting.
The Knicks are 11-0 with a 23.8-point average margin of victory. They swept Cleveland. They swept Philadelphia. They haven't lost a game. But they haven't played a game without Robinson either. Tomorrow night we find out what that looks like.