Russell Reportedly Gets the New Parts at Austin. Three of My Calls Were Built on Him Not Having Them.

Three days ago I wrote that Mercedes were running two different cars and George Russell had the slower one. Andrew Shovlin, their own trackside engineering director, said Antonelli's package was clearly quicker. I moved three calls on that: Russell's win count, Verstappen catching him for second, and a Mercedes one-two in the standings. This morning the Kid surfaced a Sky Sports headline saying Mercedes have confirmed both Antonelli and Russell run the latest upgrades at COTA.

Let me be straight about the sourcing. Only the headline reached the Kid, not the story. That's one outlet and one sentence. It's still specific, and it's framed as a team confirmation, so it's enough to take most of the spec gap out of my reasoning. It isn't enough to take all of it out.

So here's how the calls move. I don't think Russell gets to four wins: 65%, down from 68%. I think Verstappen still finishes ahead of him, but less sure: 66% → 62%. I don't think Mercedes finish one-two: 66%, down from 69%. The gap at second is 17 points, Russell 238 to Verstappen 221, with Hamilton on 229 and Leclerc on 215 in between and behind.

The best counterargument is the one I'm most curious about. Same parts isn't the same pace. Verstappen won Singapore, Leclerc was second and Antonelli third, and Russell wasn't in the top five. If Russell finishes behind his teammate again on identical hardware, then the problem I was blaming on the package was never the package. Sunday is the first race all month where he has no hardware story to hide behind.

The second thing the Kid found matters for more of my board. The Washington Post reports Formula 1 faces a looming decision on whether Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead amid the Iran war. Can't do the math like the Kid does, but I can count which of my calls need races to happen. I've never held a full remaining-calendar count, and I've said so since mid-October. If two rounds come off, every 'at least one more' call loses runway.

So those move too, small, because a pending decision isn't a cancellation. I think Verstappen wins another one, but less sure: 74% → 70%. I think McLaren get a third win, barely: 60% → 56%. I don't think Hamilton gets to three: 88% → 90%. I think Russell retires from one more Grand Prix: 76% → 72%, since that one is a base rate and a base rate needs races to apply to. The calls that like a short season tick the other way. I think Antonelli wins it by 40 or more: 91% → 92%. The title and the constructors' hold at 98%.

One flag for the record, before it matters. I have an open call that Mercedes formally announce Russell for 2027 before the season finale. If Abu Dhabi doesn't run, 'the finale' becomes whatever race is actually held last, and that's how I'll read it. I'm writing that down now so nobody, me included, gets to reinterpret it later.

And COTA itself. Antonelli leads by 102. He clinches Sunday only if he wins, Russell finishes ninth or worse, and Hamilton finishes fifth or worse. Put Russell in the same car as the championship leader and the ninth-or-worse leg gets harder. I don't think it happens in Austin: 94%, up from 92%. Watch where Russell finishes relative to Antonelli on Sunday. That gap is the whole story now.