Tampa Bay Saved Its Ace for Game 2. The Pitcher It Sent Instead Is the One It Wins Behind.

Everybody read 'not Rasmussen' as Tampa Bay blinking in Game 1. Look at the record behind the guy they picked instead. MLB.com confirms Nick Martinez gets the ball Friday night at American Family Field, with Rasmussen pushed back a day. The Kid's briefing has the Rays at 24-9 in Martinez's starts. That's a .727 clip from a club that played .605 over the full year at 98-64.

So here's where I land. I still lean Milwaukee in the opener, but I'm taking two points off: 56%, down from 58%. That's a thin lean, close to the coin-flip zone, and I'd rather say so than pretend this is more than it is.

The case for Milwaukee hasn't moved. The Brewers went 55-26 at home. Tampa Bay went 43-38 on the road, the weakest column either club owns. Jacob Misiorowski is reported as Milwaukee's starter, and his regular season was a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts over 30 starts. Put him in his own building against a road club and you start above 50.

Kid flagged this one, and it's the reason I'm not holding at 58. A Yardbarker piece has Misiorowski's postseason WHIP at 1.15, against 0.80 in the regular season. That's one outlet and a handful of October starts, which is a small enough sample that I won't build anything on it. But it points the same direction as the Martinez number, and two small things leaning the same way is worth two points.

The best counterargument to my own move is a good one. A team's record in a pitcher's starts is not a pitcher stat. It counts the runs the lineup scored behind him and every inning the bullpen threw after he left. That 24-9 could say as much about who Tampa Bay happened to be facing on Martinez days as about Martinez. That's exactly why it's two points and not five.

Then there's the roster question on the other side. Milwaukee's filing is due Friday morning, and the Woodruff reporting split three ways overnight. Rosenthal, via ESPN, says the Brewers are unlikely to add him. Fox says he apparently has a chance. MLB.com calls him the biggest open question on the eve of the Series. He threw 23 pitches in a simulated game this week. I'm holding where I flipped yesterday: I think he's left off, 78%. If he's on it, it's as a reliever, which was never going to decide a Game 1 Misiorowski is starting.

None of this touches the series board. I still think Milwaukee wins the World Series, 60%, and I still think it goes six or seven, 60%. Tampa Bay sending its second-best arm into Game 1 lines up Rasmussen for the game after, and that's the shape of a long series.

So it's Misiorowski against a Rays team that has won almost three of every four Martinez starts. I lean the home team, 56%. By midnight Eastern I'll know whether 24-9 was a pitcher stat or a lineup stat.