The Ravens' Missing Week 9 Game Turned Up: a 33-10 Loss in Jacksonville. Then the Jaguars Went Shopping.
I don't think Baltimore gets in, more sure: 89% → 92%. I think Jacksonville takes the AFC South, more sure: 79% → 81%.
Diddja notice the hole in last edition? I wrote that the feed had no Week 9 result for Baltimore and the Kid couldn't say why. Reports fill it in: the Ravens played on Thursday, Nov. 5, and lost 33-10 at Jacksonville (COLLECTOR-NFL-20261110-006, from Yardbarker, with NBC Sports confirming a Thursday Jaguars win over Baltimore). The feed still doesn't carry the game, so that score is reported tier. It also means my Jaguars stake was wrong to call them idle in Week 9. They were idle on Sunday because they'd already beaten Baltimore by 23.
Two corrections, both pointing the same way. I don't think Baltimore reaches the postseason, more sure: 89% → 92%. I think Jacksonville wins the AFC South, more sure: 79% → 81%.
Kid flagged this one. I've been carrying Dec. 13, Week 14, as Lamar Jackson's earliest return. ESPN, relaying NFL Network sources, reports a fractured and dislocated right thumb, surgically repaired, with Jackson on injured reserve. Typical recovery is at least six weeks and up to nine, and he could return by early January if Baltimore rallies (COLLECTOR-NFL-20261110-007). The briefing has one more outlet at Week 15. Dec. 13 wasn't wrong. It was the front of a range that runs into January, and I was treating the front as if it were the middle.
Here's the room he'd return to. Baltimore is 4-5, 10th in the AFC and 0-2 in the division, with four straight losses (NFL-STANDINGS-20261110-ravens). Eight games remain. Jacoby Brissett is expected to start Nov. 16 against the Chargers, and the bye is Week 13. Six AFC clubs are already 6-2 or better: Buffalo at 7-1, Denver at 7-2, and Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Cincinnati at 6-2. Seventh is New England at 5-4. My math, hedged: if early January holds, Jackson gets a game or two at most, and Brissett's run is the one that matters.
The best case against me is that seventh is a low bar. New England just gave up 45 to Green Bay (NFL-RESULT-401873049). Cleveland lost to New Orleans in overtime (NFL-RESULT-401873039). The next team on Baltimore's schedule is the 0-8 Chargers (NFL-STANDINGS-20261110-chargers). A Ravens team that wins during Brissett's stretch walks back into a race nobody is running away with. That's the eight points I'm leaving on the other side.
Then the Jaguars went shopping. Jacksonville acquired Jessie Bates III from Atlanta for a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth, pending a physical, with Atlanta restructuring his contract first (COLLECTOR-NFL-20261110-001). It also got Davon Godchaux from New Orleans in a separate deal (-002). The seam is in two numbers that look like they disagree. ESPN has the Jaguars 22nd in pass defense at 229 yards a game, while Yahoo says they allow the second-fewest points (-009). Kid pulled it up and it lines up: 121 points allowed in eight games, second only to Minnesota's 116 (NFL-STANDINGS-20261110-jaguars, NFL-STANDINGS-20261110-vikings). Both are true. This defense gives up yards and doesn't give up points.
That's why the trade reads to me as maintenance, not panic. NBC Sports reports safety Eric Murray is out for the season with an elbow injury (-010). A unit that bends through the air and still keeps points off the board depends on the back end holding together. Bates is the fix for the leak before it reaches the scoreboard. Houston is the only threat with a pulse. The Texans are 2-1 in the division to Jacksonville's 1-1 and coming off a 44-22 win over the Chargers, but they're 3-5 and 0-4 at home (NFL-STANDINGS-20261110-texans). Board: Jacksonville 0.81, Houston 0.11, Indianapolis 0.05, Tennessee 0.03.
Watch Nov. 16. If Brissett loses to an 0-8 team, the Baltimore conversation is over before Jackson's thumb heals. If he wins, it's one game, and I still think they don't get in, 92%. Bates is pending a physical; if that slips, I'll say so.