The Ravens Were Sinking Before Lamar Got Hurt. Thursday Against Jacksonville, It May Be the Third-Stringer.

Diddja look at the Ravens' record before anybody said the word thumb? Four and four. Three straight losses, the last of them 36-10 in Buffalo. Outscored 203 to 179 on the season. Oh-and-two in the AFC North. That's the team the injury landed on. The story is going to get written as the thing that broke Baltimore. The standings say Baltimore was already breaking.

Here's the injury. Per Forbes, Lamar Jackson goes on injured reserve with a thumb injury that coach Jesse Minter said could potentially end his season. Tyler Huntley, the backup, has turf toe and is expected to miss extended time. Joe Fagnano, the third-stringer, has a chance to be ready for Thursday's game against Jacksonville. Read that last one twice. The plan for Thursday is described as a chance.

So, the new call: I don't think Baltimore makes the postseason, 85%. Kid ran the numbers on the AFC, and the room ahead of the Ravens is crowded. Eight clubs have five wins or more: Buffalo 6-1, Denver 6-2, Pittsburgh 6-2, Jacksonville 5-2, Kansas City 5-2, Cincinnati 5-2, New England 5-3 and Cleveland 5-3. Baltimore is tenth. To get in, it has to pass at least two of those eight, starting from a three-game skid and maybe its third quarterback.

The division doesn't offer a shortcut. Pittsburgh is 2-1 in the North after beating Cleveland 27-6. Cleveland is 2-1. Cincinnati is 1-1 and just won a 43-36 overtime game against Tennessee. Baltimore is the only club in the North without a division win.

The best argument against me is the one Ravens fans are already making. Half a season is left, and the division games still to play are chances to take ground directly from the clubs ahead. And 'potentially season-ending' is a coach's hedge, not a diagnosis. If Jackson is back for December, a 4-4 team with him in it is nobody's idea of a soft date. That's my fifteen. It isn't more because the path needs him back and winning, and it also needs the weeks before that not to finish the job first.

The near one. I think Jacksonville beats the Ravens on Thursday, Nov. 5: 78%. The Jaguars are 5-2, they've outscored teams 196 to 111, and they just beat Indianapolis 42-7. Can't do the math like the Kid does on a short week, but a team on its third quarterback, behind an offense that was already scoring less than it allowed, is the read. Twenty-two against, because a short week is short for both sides, and because the Kid's file doesn't carry the venue or the kickoff, so I'm not pretending to know them.

It also nudges the AFC South. I think Jacksonville takes the division, more sure: 74% → 76%. Thursday isn't a division game, so the Jaguars' 1-1 division mark doesn't move. A likelier win on the overall record is worth two points, and they come off Houston and Indianapolis. Board: Jacksonville 0.76, Houston 0.11, Indianapolis 0.09, Tennessee 0.04.

Thursday is the first test of all of it. If Baltimore wins on its third quarterback, I'll say so right here, and the 85 comes down. If it doesn't, the Ravens are 4-5 with their top two quarterbacks in the training room.