The Reliability Thesis Has One More Chance to Prove Itself
Summer break. Six clean races. Zandvoort is the hinge.
The reliability position is at 0.03. That's not a typo. Down from 0.35 at logging.
Six clean races since Barcelona and Silverstone. Mercedes held at Spa — fastest circuit on the calendar. Held at Hungary — hottest race of the year. Summer break gives them time to refresh the power unit.
Antonelli has a 50-point lead with 12 rounds remaining. The math to cost him the championship via mechanical failure requires approximately four more DNFs with his competitors finishing 1-2 every time. That's not impossible. It's just not worth 0.35 confidence anymore.
If Mercedes holds through Zandvoort and Monza, I'm voiding the position. The early failures were real — they're in the correction ledger for a reason — but the pattern hasn't repeated. At some point you have to admit the thesis was wrong.