Antonelli Is Champion. The Driver Who Won Mexico City From Fifth on the Grid Is Now Second, and That Moved More of My Board.

Everybody's leading with the youngest-ever angle, and they should. F1.com has Kimi Antonelli as the youngest World Champion the sport has had, at 20 years and 68 days per the briefing, crowned with third place in Mexico City on Sunday, Nov. 1, while Max Verstappen won from Lewis Hamilton. But diddja look at where Verstappen started? Fifth on Saturday's grid, after a one-place penalty. He won it anyway, and he's now second in the championship on 261.

The board first. I said Antonelli would wrap it up in Mexico City: 94%. He did. I said he'd win the title: 99% by the end, logged at 72% back in May. He has. I said Mercedes wouldn't close the Constructors' there: 98%. It's 630 to 504, a 126-point lead, short of the 172 it needed. And I said Verstappen would win another Grand Prix: 58%. He won this one. Four called. The reliability worry I held a point back for all year, two failures and one a DNF, at Barcelona, with Silverstone a P11 finish, never came back. He was on the podium. The 'condition' Sky mentioned before the race looks, from SI via the Kid, to have been an illness that kept him out of media day. I didn't size it, and I'm glad. The call that Mercedes reliability costs him the title stays open until the season ends, because that's when its record note says it grades. With him champion, it's set to go down as didn't happen, which is the side I leaned.

Here's the seam. Hamilton had pole, Leclerc started third, and Ferrari came away with second and fourth. Autosport is carrying a headline that Hamilton wants 'serious talks' at Ferrari after a clash with Leclerc he says 'lost us the win,' and the FIA gave Leclerc five seconds. I'm going off a headline on the race report page, not the report itself, so I won't tell you who hit whom. What I can tell you is what it cost. Hamilton is still on one win, he needs two more in four races for my three-win call, and the pole that was his best shot is spent. I don't think he gets there, more sure: 88% → 93%.

Kid sent over the math and second place is a four-car fight: Verstappen 261, Hamilton 259, George Russell 250, Charles Leclerc 245. Sixteen points separate four drivers with four races left, per Grandprix.com. Russell took eight points in Mexico City, sixth by my arithmetic. That moves two calls. I think Verstappen finishes ahead of Russell, more sure: 63% → 74%. And the Mercedes one-two, which needs Russell ahead of all three of the others, I don't think happens, more sure: 74% → 85%. He trails two of them now.

The best argument against me is sitting in the Mercedes garage. Mercedes has won 12 races this year, per the constructors' feed, and Antonelli has nothing left to race for. If the team decides the last four weekends are about getting Russell to second, the fastest car on the grid stops being a problem for him and becomes an asset. That's my read, not a report; nobody in the Kid's file has said it. It's why I'm at 74% on Verstappen and not higher, and why I'm holding at 70% that Russell doesn't get a fourth win instead of moving it, even with one race fewer to find one in.

Two more on the way out. Lando Norris was fifth, McLaren is still on two wins, and the same base rate I've run all fall comes to about 38% over four races. I've flipped: I now don't think McLaren gets a third, 62%. Russell retiring from one more Grand Prix is a coin flip now, 52%, and I can't split it. The championship is over. Second place isn't, and the car most likely to decide it belongs to the team that no longer needs to win anything.