Three Shots in the Third Period of an Elimination Game Is Not a Strategy
Montreal's offensive ceiling just announced itself. Carolina is one win from the Stanley Cup Final.
Diddja catch what happened in the third period last night?
Montreal Canadiens. Facing elimination. Down 3-0 in the game, 2-1 in the series. And they mustered three shots on goal in the final twenty minutes. Three. The crowd at the Bell Centre started chanting 'Shoot the puck!' at 17:05 of the third — not because they were frustrated with the result, but because Montreal had offensive zone possession and hadn't registered a single shot of the period yet.
The Kid ran the numbers and they're brutal: Montreal was outshot 43-18 overall, including 19-3 in that third period. Frederik Andersen made 18 saves for his third shutout of these playoffs. He barely had to work for it.
This wasn't a team that got goalied. This was a team that stopped shooting.
Here's the thing about Montreal's playoff run: they've survived by limiting shots against and riding Jakub Dobes's supernatural ability to make stops he has no business making. That strategy requires, at minimum, generating enough offense to win low-scoring games. What we saw last night was the ceiling of that approach — Dobes made 39 saves and it didn't matter because Montreal couldn't generate anything resembling sustained pressure when they needed it most.
The Canadiens are 0-3 in Game 4s this postseason. They're now 0-3 in games after not losing consecutive games in their first two rounds (where they won a pair of seven-game series). Something about facing elimination for the first time has broken their offense.
Carolina scored three goals in a 2:47 span in the first period — Aho, Staal, Stankoven — and then spent the rest of the game managing the lead. The Hurricanes are 5-0 in overtime this playoffs, but they didn't need to go there. They knew Montreal wasn't going to score, and they were right.
Game 5 is Friday in Raleigh. If Montreal loses, the 'two shots away from being up 3-0' narrative — that's Mike Matheson's quote after the Game 3 OT loss — becomes the epitaph. Carolina is seeking their first Stanley Cup Final appearance since 2006. Andersen is seeking his first Finals appearance in his career after four prior Conference Finals exits.
The Hurricanes need one win. Based on what Montreal showed last night, I don't see where the Canadiens find four goals in a road game.