Atlanta Made 13 Threes to Force the First Game 7 in WNBA Finals History. My Number Doesn't Need a Momentum Bump.

Golden State shot 31.4% from the field in Game 6 and went 7 for 27 from three. Atlanta made 13 threes, which ties the most in a WNBA Finals game by a team facing elimination, and led by 17 after one quarter. Atlanta 80, Golden State 69, series 3-3. No WNBA Finals had gone seven before this one. Game 7 is Saturday, Oct. 31, 8 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco.

I said Golden State wouldn't close it out in Atlanta: 56%. They didn't. I'd leaned that way since the day I logged it, 58% against, and the reason was dull on purpose. Atlanta was at home, and I've been giving the home team 58% all series. That call closes as a hit, and it goes on the record that way.

Here's what I'm not doing: I'm not giving Atlanta a bump for the shooting. In Game 5 this team shot 29.2% from the field. In Game 4 it was 33.3%. Then it made 13 threes. I'll say plainly that the cold-shooting thread I'd been pulling on broke in Game 6. But a cold streak ending isn't the same thing as a hot streak starting. A team whose shooting swings that far from one game to the next has told you that the next game's shooting is a coin, not a trend.

Kid ran the numbers off the same model I've used for six games. My Atlanta title number was 58% at home times 42% on the road, about 24%, because they needed both games. They won the first one. What's left is the 42. So I don't think Atlanta wins it, less sure: 76% → 58%. The West call moves with it to 58% Golden State, by construction. The jump from 24 to 42 isn't me changing my mind. It's the model doing what it said it would do if Atlanta held serve at home.

The best case against me is in the regular-season table. Atlanta went 15-7 at home and 15-7 on the road, per the Kid's feed. This is not a team that wilts away from its own floor. Golden State is 17-5 at Chase Center, which is better, but not by enough to make 58% feel generous. That's why I'm at 58 and not 65. If anything argues for a coin flip, it's that 15-7 road number, and I've weighed it.

On the individual stuff: Gabby Williams led Golden State with 26 in a game where the rest of the team couldn't find it from outside. Reports have Allisha Gray with 23 for Atlanta. Before Game 6, a low-tier pregame tracker listed Atlanta's Brionna Jones out. There's been no new reporting on her since, and I'm not going to guess.

One game, one building, no series math left to hide behind. I'd rather be the guy who said 58-42 for six games and kept saying it than the guy who rewrote the model after one hot quarter. If Atlanta wins Saturday night, that's the 42 coming in. I'll write it that way.