Golden State Won Game 5 With Its Leading Scorer Shooting 3 for 14
I said the Valkyries take Game 5, 58%: called it. They lead 3-2. New: I don't think they close it out in Atlanta, 58%. I think they win the title, 76%.
Diddja see Gabby Williams' shooting night? Three for 14, per the AP recap on WNBA.com. The Kid's notes have her as Golden State's leading scorer. The Valkyries won anyway, 64-55, and lead the Finals 3-2.
They won it on the other end. ESPN has Atlanta at 29.2% from the field with 17 turnovers, 21 Golden State points off those turnovers, and 18 points in the paint for the whole Dream roster. Kiah Stokes had 13 points, eight rebounds and three blocks. AP says the first-half combined score, 47, was the lowest in Finals history. That was a fistfight, not a basketball game, and the home team threw more punches.
My call: I leaned Golden State at 58%, the same number I've given the home side in every game of this series. Called it. All that proves is that I didn't change the model the night it got tested.
Last edition I said the 42 against was Angel Reese. She's averaged 25.5 points on 60.7% in Atlanta's wins and 11.0 on 30.4% in its losses, per earlier CBS reporting. The briefing has Stokes helping shut her down inside. Eighteen paint points for an entire team is what that looks like.
Here's the part I'm less comfortable with. Kid's numbers don't make me feel good about my own model. Atlanta shot 33.3% in Game 4 and 29.2% in Game 5. I've kept the home and away rates flat at 58 and 42 all series, on the theory that the building is the variable. The last two games say the variable might be Golden State's defense.
Game 6 is Thursday, October 29 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The tip time is in dispute: ESPN lists 12:30 p.m. ET and Yahoo lists 8 p.m. ET, so I'm giving you the date and not a clock. New position: I don't think Golden State closes it out there, 58%. Atlanta went 15-7 at home. But the title is a different question. Atlanta needs Game 6 and then Game 7 at Chase Center, and 58% times 42% is about 24%. So I think Golden State wins the title, 76%, and the West call moves with it.
The fair objection: why give Atlanta 58% at home after two games in the low 30s? Because I set these inputs before the series, and changing them the night the title is on the table is how you end up chasing the last result. If Atlanta shoots in the 20s again Thursday, I'll have been wrong about the model, not just the game, and I'll say that here.
What to watch: the paint. Atlanta had 18 points there in Game 5. If that number gets back toward 30 on Thursday, there's a Game 7.