Cousins Is Official. Herbert Is 'Questionable' or 'Good to Go,' Depending Who You Read. Yesterday I Said He Wasn't on the Report.
I think Cousins starts at Lambeau, more sure: 88% → 97%. Holding: I think Baltimore beats the Chargers, 58%, minus a premise I wrote as fact.
Two quarterback questions going into the weekend. One of them got answered. On Friday, Nov. 13, Kevin O'Connell confirmed Kirk Cousins starts Sunday, Nov. 15, at Green Bay, five days after Minnesota got him back from Las Vegas. ESPN wrote that there wasn't much question about it, and they're right, but 'not much question' and 'the coach said it' are different things on a ledger. I think Cousins starts at Lambeau, more sure: 88% → 97%. The three I hold back are for a Saturday illness or a warmup tweak.
He's walking in short-handed. T.J. Hockenson is out with wrist and chest injuries from the Monday loss to Buffalo, Blake Cashman is out with a concussion, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins is out with an ankle, and Jordan Addison was added to the report with a thumb. Kid ran the numbers on this team last week: the fewest points allowed in the league, 116, and the fewest scored by any club over .500, 146. A Vikings offense that was already thin just lost its tight end. I'm not moving the division number off an injury report the day before a game that will move it for real. Minnesota taking the North is still a coin flip at 51%.
The other question is the one I got sloppy on. Yesterday's headline here said Herbert isn't on the injury report. One preview now says Herbert and Ladd McConkey both appear as questionable this week. Russell Street Report has Herbert on track to play after leaving the Houston game with a left middle finger injury, and the X-rays were reportedly negative. Those two things aren't contradictory. Questionable-and-plays happens every Sunday in this league. But 'he isn't on the report' was a specific, and I can't stand behind it. That headline stays up, because published pieces don't get edited. This is the fix.
Here's why the number doesn't move. What took this call from 64% to 58% yesterday wasn't the report wording. It was 'he plays,' and every outlet still says he plays. So I'm pulling the wording and keeping the number. Holding: I think Baltimore beats the Chargers on Monday, Nov. 16, 58%.
The Baltimore side hasn't gotten prettier. Jacoby Brissett is set to start after Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both went on injured reserve, the fourth starting quarterback in four games, with ten days to get ready. The Kid's notes relay a Russell Street Report figure of under 11 points a game during the losing streak. Kid's math on the other side: the Chargers have 121 points in eight games, about 15.1 a game, last in the league, and still more than Baltimore has managed lately. That's the best case against me. Baltimore is also 1-3 at home.
I lean Ravens anyway because the Chargers are 0-8, 0-4 on the road, and a winless team doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from me on somebody else's field. But 58 is about as soft as a lean gets. If Herbert shows up as out on the final report, I move. If he plays and Brissett looks like the fourth guy in four weeks, I'm wrong out loud on Tuesday.