Herbert Isn't on the Injury Report. Baltimore Hasn't Scored More Than 13 in a Month.
I think Baltimore beats the Chargers Monday, Nov. 16, less sure: 64% → 58%. I don't think they reach the postseason, more sure: 93% → 94%.
Yesterday's Ravens piece leaned on a premise I'm retiring: Herbert reportedly banged up. He doesn't appear on the Chargers' injury report ahead of Monday, and Harbaugh says the X-rays were negative and he should be good to go. And I called Baltimore's problem a defense problem. The Ravens' own site says the offense hasn't scored more than 13 in any of the four straight losses, and Brissett will be the fourth different starter in four weeks.
Kid ran the numbers on the matchup that's supposed to be easy. The Chargers have scored 121 points in eight games, the fewest in the league, about 15 a game. Baltimore has come in under that in each of its last four. My math, hedged, on four games: the winless team's season average beats the Ravens' recent ceiling. The Chargers are still 0-8, and 0-4 on the road, and that's why I still lean Baltimore.
The call: I think the Ravens win Monday, Nov. 16, less sure: 64% → 58%. And the bigger one goes the other way. I don't think Baltimore reaches the postseason, more sure: 93% → 94%. A team that needs a win over an 0-8 club to feel better has told you what kind of season it is.