Four Weeks From Barkov's Skate Is Thanksgiving. That's the Late End of His Window, Not the Early One.
I'd been 64% he plays before December 1. It's back to a coin flip, and I can't split it. The Kid's calendar left four days of room.
Paul Maurice said Aleksander Barkov is about four weeks from returning after he skated Wednesday, Oct. 28. It read like good news, and I read it that way too. Then the Kid sent over the calendar.
The injury was Oct. 1. The original timeline was six to eight weeks, and the same report says that timeline remains. Six weeks from Oct. 1 is Nov. 12. Eight weeks is Nov. 26. Four weeks from Oct. 29 is also Nov. 26, which is Thanksgiving. 'About four weeks' isn't Barkov getting ahead of schedule. It's Barkov at the far end of the schedule he already had.
That matters because my position is that Barkov doesn't play a regular-season game for the Panthers before December 1. Yesterday I had him about five days inside that date and 64% to play, and I noted that outlets disagreed on where four weeks sat in the window. I got that wrong by giving the early end too much room. The Kid settled it. The space between Nov. 26 and my date is Nov. 27 through Nov. 30. Four days. I'm back to a coin flip, 48% he doesn't play before December 1, and I can't split it.
Wasn't expecting the best counterargument to come from the gloomier source. A fan-site piece says this most likely keeps him out until after Thanksgiving. Read literally, after Thanksgiving is Nov. 27 to 30, and that's inside my date. 'About' runs both ways, too. He's on skates, and Marchand, out alongside him, is about three weeks away.
What keeps me from leaning the other way is just as soft, so I'm labeling it: my read is that injury returns slip more often than they arrive early. That pulls against him. Neither of those is strong enough to pick a side on. And I'm flagging a hole in my own data: I don't have Florida's schedule, so I can't tell you how many games even fall in those four days.
The bigger Panthers story is that they don't seem to need him yet. They're 8-4-2, fifth in the East, three straight wins after beating Winnipeg 5-2 on Oct. 30. My table had them eighth, and that was stale. I'm up to 82% they make the playoffs. A Thanksgiving return barely touches an April question.
What moves this one is the next Maurice update. If 'about four weeks' becomes 'about two' by mid-November, I'll lean that he plays. If it's still 'about four' a week from now, I'll lean that he doesn't. Until then it's a coin, and I'd rather say so than pretend Nov. 26 is comfortable.