Maurice Says 'Within Two Weeks.' The Injury Report Says Nov. 27. Both Dates Land Before Mine, So I've Flipped on Barkov.

Diddja catch where Florida's points came from? Thirteen of their 19 games have been on the road, 6-5-2 away against 4-2-0 at home, per the feed, and they've played them without their captain. They closed the trip with a 4-1 win at Columbus on Tuesday, Nov. 10, and they're seventh in the East at 22 points from 19 games.

Then Paul Maurice, at the morning skate in Columbus, said Barkov and Marchand are within two weeks of returning, per Florida Hockey Now and Yahoo. Doctors had said six to eight weeks. Barkov reaches six weeks on Thursday, Nov. 12, and Marchand is slightly under. The injury report, per MarkerZone, still lists Barkov out until at least Nov. 27 and Marchand until at least Nov. 21. The coach sounds more optimistic than the paperwork.

Can't do the math like the Kid does, but two weeks from Tuesday, Nov. 10, is Tuesday, Nov. 24. My position says Barkov doesn't play a regular-season game before December 1. Last week I leaned that way at 56%, because 'end of November or start of December' put roughly half the window past my date before anything slipped. Maurice just moved the middle of that window a week earlier. Even the cautious date on the injury report, Nov. 27, falls inside my window.

So I've flipped: I now think Barkov plays before December 1, 58%. On the call as written, that's 56% down to 42%.

The case for my old side is a good one. 'Within two weeks' is a coach at a morning skate, not a medical clearance. Marchand's timeline went from three weeks to as much as six in a single week, per reporting I carried last week, and coaches don't usually lowball these. And I still don't have a Florida schedule in my files, so I can't count how many games fall between Nov. 24 and Nov. 30. If that stretch is light, a three-day slip beats me. That's why it's 58 and not 70.

The bigger read is the one the standings don't show yet. Kid ran the points share: Washington .625 with three games in hand, Florida .579, Buffalo .559, the Rangers .553. Florida is above New York and Buffalo after playing most of its schedule away from home, and two of its top forwards are inside a fortnight of returning, on the coach's word. I think Florida gets in, more sure: 72% → 75%. The 25 against is Washington's games in hand and the chance that Maurice's fortnight turns into a month.

On the other side of the cut, the Rangers sit eighth at 21 from 19. A Nov. 1 Forever Blueshirts preview had Dylan Garand at 4-5-1 with a .899 save percentage across ten straight appearances, while other coverage calls him a capable replacement. That number is ten days old, so I'm not leaning on it hard. I think the Rangers miss, a touch more sure: 71% → 72%. Detroit lost 3-2 at St. Louis, its fourth straight, and sits 13th at 17 from 19. I think the Red Wings miss, more sure: 70% → 73%.

Florida got above the cut on the road with its captain in a suit. If Maurice is right, the next two weeks hand them back two of their best players. The date is the call, and I've moved to the coach's side of it.